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The Acumen Climate Action Pakistan (ACAP) Fund is a USD 90 million blended finance facility, requesting USD 28 million from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), to support venture and growth-stage agribusinesses in Pakistan. The fund targets three investment themes: Farmer Platforms and Financial Solutions, Smart Farming, and Post-Harvest Technologies. It aims to benefit approximately 13.1 million people by improving farmer incomes, increasing the adoption of climate-smart agriculture, and reducing post-harvest losses. The program includes a USD 10 million Technical Assistance Facility (TAF) to support portfolio companies in areas such as gender initiatives, ESG reporting, and climate adaptation. ACAP seeks to demonstrate the commercial viability of adaptation-focused business models to catalyze further private sector investment in Pakistan's agriculture sector.

The 2022 floods in Pakistan, which inundated a third of the country, have created a humanitarian catastrophe that exacerbates political instability, provides opportunities for extremist recruitment, and increases risks to nuclear security. The document argues that poor ecological governance and political turbulence worsened the impact. It highlights the potential for groups like the Pakistani Taliban and Islamic State Khorasan to exploit government absence by providing aid. Furthermore, it warns that climate hazards could destabilize nuclear sites or escalate tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan over water resources in the Indus River Basin. The authors urge the United States to integrate climate considerations into military support and fulfill climate finance commitments to ensure long-term security.

The 2022 monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, resulted in catastrophic flooding that affected over 33 million people and caused damages likely exceeding US$30 billion. Attribution analysis indicates that 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan is now approximately 75% more intense than it would have been without a 1.2C warming, while 60-day rain across the Indus basin is about 50% more intense. While high regional variability and model discrepancies make exact quantification of the human-induced role difficult, most models and observations show that intense rainfall has increased as Pakistan warmed, with future projections suggesting further significant increases in rainfall intensity at 2 °C of warming.

The report argues that climate change acts as a risk multiplier in the India-China rivalry, increasing the likelihood of conflict through material threats and perceptual risks. Key vulnerabilities include increased flooding in the Brahmaputra River Basin, which may be misconstrued as Chinese water manipulation, and warming in the western border region that could facilitate more frequent military patrols and clashes. The study also highlights the security implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend establishing granular data-sharing agreements, joint early warning systems for natural disasters, and long-term river basin treaties involving all riparian states.

The report finds that climate change will act as a risk multiplier in the India-China rivalry, increasing the likelihood of conflict through material environmental changes and perceptual misinterpretations. Key risks include increased flooding in the Brahmaputra River Basin, which may be misconstrued as Chinese water manipulation, and warming in the western border region that could facilitate more frequent military patrols and clashes. The study also highlights the role of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers as sources of regional instability and distrust. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend institutionalizing data-sharing, establishing joint early warning systems for natural disasters, and pursuing long-term river basin treaties.

The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the proximate cause of war between India and Pakistan, it acts as a risk multiplier by increasing the volatility of river flows in the Indus River Basin (IRB). This volatility heightens mutual distrust regarding dam operations and water manipulation, placing unprecedented stress on the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The author suggests that the IWT's framework of partitioning water is inadequate for modern climate challenges and recommends a shift toward joint sustainable management to prevent natural calamities from triggering armed conflict in a nuclear-armed region.

The report assesses gender dynamics in Pakistan's Indus River Basin to inform a climate resilience project. It finds that while women perform the bulk of livestock management and significant crop labor, they lack land ownership, decision-making power, and access to technical resources. The document proposes 'Women Open Schools' and targeted technical training to empower female farmers and young women as catalysts for climate adaptation.

The 'Recharge Pakistan' project is a 10-year initiative (2020-2030) designed to shift Pakistan's flood management from a reliance on 'grey' hard-infrastructure to 'green' ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA). With an indicative total cost of USD 150 million, the project aims to reduce flood risk and enhance groundwater recharge at six selected sites along a 1,300km stretch of the Indus River. The project targets direct benefits for 10 million people and indirect benefits for 20 million others by restoring wetlands, managing hill torrents, and diversifying community livelihoods. It is led by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) as the Accredited Entity, with the Federal Flood Commission and the Ministry of Climate Change serving as executing entities.

The region at the base of the Himalayas is experiencing extreme climate volatility, with record-setting floods and severe droughts disrupting both water and energy security. India's power grid relies heavily on water-intensive coal and hydropower, leading to chronic electricity shortages when water is scarce and infrastructure damage during floods. These challenges have triggered rural-to-urban migration, civil unrest, and farmer suicides. To mitigate these risks, the document recommends that India shift toward wind and solar energy and suggests the U.S. provide financial and technical support through initiatives like the U.S.-India Clean Energy Finance Scheme.

The document provides a comprehensive review of Pakistan's vulnerability to climate change, focusing on the gap between national policy goals and actual implementation. It identifies critical risks to water, food, and energy security, and notes that while the government has established a National Climate Change Policy and an implementation framework, progress is hindered by weak governance, limited funding, and a lack of capacity at the provincial level following the devolution of responsibilities under the 18th Amendment. The report also catalogues 26 discrete adaptation projects, noting a heavy focus on research and water management, while highlighting significant gaps in health, forestry, and gender-sensitive adaptation.

The 'Living Indus' project seeks USD 25 million in GCF grants to implement a programmatic framework for ecological restoration in Pakistan. The initiative focuses on two pillars: governance, which includes the creation of a 'Living Indus Act' and provincial masterplans, and investment, targeting the Sindh Province. Planned interventions include restoring mangrove and riverine forests, rehabilitating wetlands, and promoting climate-smart agriculture such as biosaline farming. The project aims to benefit 1.18 million direct beneficiaries and remove approximately 2.9 million tCO2eq through carbon sequestration in restored forests.

The document details the critical state of global freshwater resources, noting that less than 1% of Earth's water is accessible for human use. It highlights how climate change, inefficient agricultural irrigation—which consumes 70% of freshwater—and urban demand exacerbate water stress, affecting over 2 billion people. WWF's interventions are highlighted in the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo, the Indus River basin, the Pantanal, and various urban centers across Asia and North America, focusing on nature-based solutions, sustainable farming, and habitat restoration.