Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions

The report argues that climate change acts as a risk multiplier in the India-China rivalry, increasing the likelihood of conflict through material threats and perceptual risks. Key vulnerabilities include increased flooding in the Brahmaputra River Basin, which may be misconstrued as Chinese water manipulation, and warming in the western border region that could facilitate more frequent military patrols and clashes. The study also highlights the security implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend establishing granular data-sharing agreements, joint early warning systems for natural disasters, and long-term river basin treaties involving all riparian states.

• Climate change is projected to increase the risk of downstream floods in the Brahmaputra River Basin during the monsoon season, particularly in July and September. This material risk is compounded by a perceptual risk where Indian populations may misinterpret these climate-driven floods as "water manipulation by China."
• Substantial warming in the western border region by 2040 may reduce the environmental hardships faced by troops in winter, potentially offsetting the current equipment advantage held by Chinese forces. However, this warming is expected to "increase the viability of military patrols," thereby increasing the potential for violent clashes.
• Warming temperatures are increasing the frequency of difficult-to-predict glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides along the mountainous border, which pose a direct threat to military personnel.
• China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus River in Pakistani-held Kashmir are projected to remain viable and productive through the end of the century. This is expected to strengthen the China-Pakistan alliance and increase regional instability in South Asia.
• The proposed 60 GW hydroelectric project at the Great Bend in Tibet, driven by China's goal of net-zero emissions by 2060, creates significant security tensions. India expresses concerns over potential water shortages during the dam-filling process, the blockage of sedimentation affecting agricultural soils in Assam, and the risk of catastrophic floods if a major earthquake fractures the dam in the seismically unstable region.
• A critical driver of tension is the lack of transparency and trust regarding hydrological data and dam projects. The report suggests that the gap between the reality of climate-driven flooding and the perception of deliberate manipulation is a spark that could ignite conflict.

APA

Shidore, S., Naegele, A., Baillargeon, N., Fleishman, R., Holland, M., & Schwalm, C. (2021). Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf

Chicago

Shidore, Sarang, Alexandra Naegele, Natalie Baillargeon, Rachel Fleishman, Madeleine Holland, and Christopher Schwalm. Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shidore |first1=Sarang |last2=Naegele |first2=Alexandra |last3=Baillargeon |first3=Natalie |last4=Fleishman |first4=Rachel |last5=Holland |first5=Madeleine |last6=Schwalm |first6=Christopher |title=Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=May 2021 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shidore2021melting, author = {Shidore, Sarang and Naegele, Alexandra and Baillargeon, Natalie and Fleishman, Rachel and Holland, Madeleine and Schwalm, Christopher}, title = {{Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }