Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

The 2022 monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, resulted in catastrophic flooding that affected over 33 million people and caused damages likely exceeding US$30 billion. Attribution analysis indicates that 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan is now approximately 75% more intense than it would have been without a 1.2C warming, while 60-day rain across the Indus basin is about 50% more intense. While high regional variability and model discrepancies make exact quantification of the human-induced role difficult, most models and observations show that intense rainfall has increased as Pakistan warmed, with future projections suggesting further significant increases in rainfall intensity at 2 °C of warming.

• The August 2022 rainfall in Pakistan was the wettest since 1961, with the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan receiving 7 and 8 times their usual monthly totals, respectively.
• The flooding caused massive humanitarian and economic losses, affecting over 33 million people, killing nearly 1,500, and destroying 1.7 million homes, 6,700 kilometres of road, and 18,590 schools. Economic damages are estimated to exceed US$30 billion, including US$2.3 billion in lost food crops.
• Observational trends suggest that a 1.2C warming has increased the intensity of 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan by about 75% and 60-day rain across the Indus basin by about 50%.
• While high variability and limitations in climate models make it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change, most analysed models and observations indicate that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan warmed, with some models suggesting an intensity increase of up to 50% for 5-day events.
• Projections for a climate 2 °C warmer than preindustrial times suggest a significant further increase in rainfall intensity for 5-day events, although uncertainty remains high for 60-day monsoon rainfall.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2022). Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan. 2022. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan |date=14 September 2022 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2022climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }