Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions

The report finds that climate change will act as a risk multiplier in the India-China rivalry, increasing the likelihood of conflict through material environmental changes and perceptual misinterpretations. Key risks include increased flooding in the Brahmaputra River Basin, which may be misconstrued as Chinese water manipulation, and warming in the western border region that could facilitate more frequent military patrols and clashes. The study also highlights the role of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers as sources of regional instability and distrust. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend institutionalizing data-sharing, establishing joint early warning systems for natural disasters, and pursuing long-term river basin treaties.

• Climate change is projected to increase the risk of downstream floods in the Brahmaputra River Basin during the monsoon season, particularly in July and September. This material risk is compounded by a perceptual risk where Indian populations may misinterpret these climate-driven floods as "water manipulation by China."
• Warming trends in the harsh western border region are expected to make military operations easier in winter, potentially reducing the current equipment disadvantage for Indian troops. However, this warming may also "increase the viability of military patrols," thereby increasing the potential for violent clashes.
• Both the western border and the river basins face threats from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which are linked to warming temperatures and can be triggered by ice calving or landslides. These events are described as "hard-to-predict" and could endanger military personnel.
• China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) dam projects on the Indus River in Pakistani-held Kashmir are projected to remain viable and productive through the end of the century. This is expected to strengthen the China-Pakistan alliance and increase regional instability in South Asia.
• The proposed 60 GW Great Bend dam in Tibet, driven by China's goal of net-zero emissions by 2060, creates significant security tensions. India expresses concerns over potential water shortages during the dam-filling process, the blockage of sedimentation affecting agricultural soils in Assam, and the risk of catastrophic floods if a major earthquake fractures the dam in a seismically unstable region.
• A critical driver of tension is the lack of transparency and trust regarding hydrological data. The report argues that China's "opaque approach toward sharing hydrological and dam project data" acts as a catalyst for tensions, as the gap between the reality of climate-driven floods and the perception of intentional manipulation can ignite conflict.

APA

Shidore, S., Naegele, A., Baillargeon, N., Fleishman, R., Holland, M., & Schwalm, C. (2021). Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf

Chicago

Shidore, Sarang, Alexandra Naegele, Natalie Baillargeon, Rachel Fleishman, Madeleine Holland, and Christopher Schwalm. Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shidore |first1=Sarang |last2=Naegele |first2=Alexandra |last3=Baillargeon |first3=Natalie |last4=Fleishman |first4=Rachel |last5=Holland |first5=Madeleine |last6=Schwalm |first6=Christopher |title=Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=May 2021 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shidore2021melting, author = {Shidore, Sarang and Naegele, Alexandra and Baillargeon, Natalie and Fleishman, Rachel and Holland, Madeleine and Schwalm, Christopher}, title = {{Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Melting-Mountains-Mounting-Tensions_Climate-Change-and-the-India-China-Rivalry_2021_05_13.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }