Report: The energy security fallout: from fossil fuel fragility to electric independence

This report by Ember examines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exposes the fragility of global fossil fuel dependencies, particularly in Asia, and argues that scaling 'electrotech' (EVs, solar, wind, batteries, and heat pumps) provides a viable path to energy security and economic independence.

• Global fossil fuel dependency is widespread and costly, with three-quarters of the world's population living in net importing countries. In 2024, these net importers spent $1.7 trillion on fossil fuel imports. The system is highly sensitive to price volatility; a $10 per barrel increase in oil prices raises global net import costs by approximately $160 billion annually, while a $1 per MMBtu increase in LNG prices adds about $20 billion per year.
• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint, carrying 20% of the world's oil and LNG. The region's instability disproportionately affects Asia, which receives 80% of the oil and 90% of the LNG transiting the strait, representing roughly 40% of Asian oil demand and over 25% of its LNG imports. Key dependent nations include Japan, South Korea, India, and Thailand.
• Scaling 'electrotech'—specifically electric vehicles (EVs), renewables, and heat pumps—could allow fossil fuel importers to reduce their import bills by approximately 70%. EVs are identified as the most significant 'superlever,' capable of reducing importer bills by over one-third, or roughly $600 billion per year.
• Electrotech has reached a scale where it can actively mitigate the impact of supply shocks. In 2025, the growth in global solar generation alone (over 600 TWh) was enough to displace gas-fired electricity equivalent to all LNG exported through the Strait of Hormuz that year. Additionally, the global EV fleet avoided oil consumption equivalent to 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025, which is nearly as much as Iran's 2.4 million barrels per day of exports.
• EV adoption is accelerating in emerging markets, with some surpassing advanced economies in sales share. In 2025, Viet Nam (38%) and Uruguay (27%) had higher EV sales shares than the EU average (26%). Indonesia's share reached 15% in 2025, overtaking the US (10%) for the first time, while China exceeded a 50% share.
• The current crisis is expected to accelerate the peak of global oil demand, potentially bringing it forward to 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has already reduced its 2026 demand growth forecast to 0.6 mbpd. Furthermore, the 'bull case' for LNG as a transition fuel for Asia has weakened due to the availability of cheaper, dispatchable solar and battery storage (under $80/MWh).

APA

Ember (n.d.). Report: The energy security fallout: from fossil fuel fragility to electric independence. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Report_The_energy_security_fall-out_from_fossil_fuel_fragility_to_electric_independence.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Report: The energy security fallout: from fossil fuel fragility to electric independence. n.d. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Report_The_energy_security_fall-out_from_fossil_fuel_fragility_to_electric_independence.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Report: The energy security fallout: from fossil fuel fragility to electric independence |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Report_The_energy_security_fall-out_from_fossil_fuel_fragility_to_electric_independence.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{emberndreport, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Report: The energy security fallout: from fossil fuel fragility to electric independence}}, institution = {Ember}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Report_The_energy_security_fall-out_from_fossil_fuel_fragility_to_electric_independence.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }