The Sustainable Scenario

The 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines differentiated carbon taxes and energy efficiency policies, is projected to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions while accelerating economic growth and reducing extreme poverty in Africa by 2050 and 2063.

• The Sustainable Africa scenario is projected to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels by 7.5% in 2050 and 17.6% by 2063 compared to the Current Path, while increasing average annual economic growth to 7.7% from 4.3%.
• By 2050, the Sustainable Africa scenario would result in an economy 79% larger than the Current Path, with GDP per capita 61% higher and a reduction in the number of people living in extreme poverty from 341 million to 105 million.
• Despite economic growth, mitigation policies would limit energy demand growth; by 2063, African per capita demand is projected to be 10.7 barrels of oil equivalent, compared to 6.4 barrels per person in the Current Path for 2050.
• The implementation of a Differentiated Pay carbon tax is identified as having a significant impact, driving CO equivalent emissions below those of the Current Path.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Sustainable Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Sustainable Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Sustainable Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026sustainable, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Sustainable Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }