The Sustainable Scenario

This research paper describes the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines differentiated carbon taxes and energy efficiency policies to reduce emissions while accelerating economic growth and poverty reduction across Africa.

• The Sustainable Africa scenario, which integrates a Differentiated Pay carbon tax and other policies, results in lower CO equivalent emissions from fossil fuels than the Current Path. Specifically, carbon emissions from fossil fuels would be 7.5% lower in 2050 and 17.6% lower in 2063 compared to the Current Path.
• The Sustainable Africa scenario projects significantly higher economic growth and poverty reduction than the Current Path. Average annual economic growth would be 7.7% compared to 4.3% in the Current Path. By 2050, the African economy would be 79% larger, GDP per capita would be 61% higher, and the number of people living in extreme poverty would drop to 105 million from 341 million.
• Due to mitigation policies, energy demand growth is constrained in the Sustainable Africa scenario. Energy demand would be only 30% higher in 2050, and per capita demand would reach 10.7 barrels of oil equivalent by 2063, compared to 6.4 barrels in the Current Path.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Sustainable Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Sustainable Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Sustainable Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026sustainable, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Sustainable Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=07-sustainable-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }