Fires and Falsehoods in California

The Council on Strategic Risks describes a workshop in California that explored how extreme weather events, such as wildfires and droughts, can be leveraged by opportunistic actors to spread mis- and disinformation. The report identifies key uncertainties regarding generative AI, institutional capacity, and public trust, and presents three divergent future scenarios for the state: a 'muddling through' crisis, a geopolitical collapse triggered by conflict in the Pacific, and a positive social transformation in water management. It concludes that information manipulation is a persistent risk to disaster response and national security, necessitating cross-sector partnerships for resilience.

• California's high economic value, strategic military importance, and vulnerability to climate impacts like wildfires and drought make it a primary target for mis- and disinformation that can undermine national security and social cohesion.
• Information manipulation affects every phase of disaster management, as evidenced by the 2025 LA wildfires where misleading narratives, some promoted by the President, hindered response efforts and subsequent recovery policies.
• The workshop identified three potential future trajectories for California through 2030: 'Continuity', where a major event like the Olympics is disrupted by wildfire; 'Collapse', where geopolitical conflict over Taiwan triggers hybrid warfare and cyber attacks in the state; and 'Transformation', where a drought leads to a positive social tipping point and the creation of a 'Western Water Alliance'.
• To mitigate these risks, the report suggests establishing cross-sector partnerships, such as joint public-private-academic verification mechanisms and new collaborations between CAL FIRE and military communities.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2026). Fires and Falsehoods in California. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/04/20/fires-and-falsehoods-in-california/

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Fires and Falsehoods in California. 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/04/20/fires-and-falsehoods-in-california/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Fires and Falsehoods in California |date=20 April 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/04/20/fires-and-falsehoods-in-california/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2026fires, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Fires and Falsehoods in California}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/04/20/fires-and-falsehoods-in-california/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }