Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines

The study finds that while solar PV is the backbone of Nigeria's net-zero electricity system, the lowest-cost and most reliable pathways require a technology-neutral approach that includes nuclear power and natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Restricting these firm low-carbon technologies increases total installed capacity by approximately 50% and annual investment requirements by about 7%. Under baseline demand, net-zero timelines require average annual investments of US$7–10 billion, but a high-demand scenario aligned with Nigeria Agenda 2050 would increase average annual investment to US$35.8 billion and nearly triple total system costs.

• A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario results in a power system that expands to meet demand but remains heavily dependent on unabated fossil fuels, specifically natural gas, failing to achieve deep decarbonization.
• Solar PV is central to all net-zero timelines, providing 37–55% of total electricity generation by 2050, with off-grid solar specifically displacing diesel and gasoline generators.
• The most cost-effective and reliable net-zero pathways are those that allow all low-carbon technologies to compete, including nuclear power and natural gas with CCS. Nuclear power can provide 33–41% of electricity generation by mid-century in these scenarios.
• Restricting the use of nuclear power or gas-CCS increases the need for solar PV and battery storage, leading to a roughly 50% increase in total installed capacity and a 7% rise in annual investment requirements.
• While baseline net-zero timelines require average annual investments of US$7–10 billion, a high-demand pathway aligned with Nigeria Agenda 2050 would increase average annual investment to US$35.8 billion and nearly triple total system costs.

APA

Dioha, M., & Odarno, L. (2026). Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/resource/technology-options-optimal-pathways-net-zero-electricity-system-nigeria-across-different-timelines/

Chicago

Dioha, Michael, and Lily Odarno. Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines. Clean Air Task Force, 2026. https://www.catf.us/resource/technology-options-optimal-pathways-net-zero-electricity-system-nigeria-across-different-timelines/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dioha |first1=Michael |last2=Odarno |first2=Lily |title=Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=28 January 2026 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/technology-options-optimal-pathways-net-zero-electricity-system-nigeria-across-different-timelines/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dioha2026technology, author = {Dioha, Michael and Odarno, Lily}, title = {{Technology Options and Optimal Pathways to a Net-Zero Electricity System in Nigeria Across Different Timelines}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/technology-options-optimal-pathways-net-zero-electricity-system-nigeria-across-different-timelines/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }