Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario

This report analyzes energy demand and production forecasts for Africa, comparing a 'Current Path' scenario with a 'Combined' scenario characterized by faster economic growth and policy interventions to constrain energy exports for domestic security.

• In the Combined scenario, Africa's total energy demand is projected to grow significantly, reaching 26% above the Current Path by 2050 and 48% above it by 2063. While energy production also increases—reaching 11.55 BBOE in 2050 compared to 8.95 BBOE in the Current Path—demand is expected to outpace supply, leading to an increase in energy imports.
• Africa faces persistent energy poverty, with average per capita demand far below the 8.62 BOE threshold required for rapid human development. In 2023, the average was 3 BOE; by 2050, the Combined scenario only raises this to 6.2 BOE, meaning only 16 countries would meet the development requirement.
• The report forecasts a rapid transition away from fossil fuels toward renewables (solar, wind, and hydro). In 2023, 95% of Africa's energy came from coal, oil, and gas; by 2050, this share is projected to drop to 65% on the Current Path and 54% in the Combined scenario.
• Despite the shift to renewables, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is expected to rise. From 4.5% of the world's total in 2023, Africa is projected to emit 9.4% by 2050 under the Current Path and 10.4% under the Combined scenario.
• Africa's global share of energy demand is projected to increase from 4.7% in 2023 to 12.9% by 2063 under the Current Path, and to 18.1% in the Combined scenario, driven by population growth, urbanization, and economic expansion.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026energy, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }