Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario

The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.

• In the high-growth Combined scenario, African energy demand is projected to be 26% higher than the Current Path by 2050 and 48% higher by 2063. Total energy production in this scenario reaches 11.55 BBOE in 2050, compared to 8.95 BBOE in the Current Path.
• Africa faces persistent energy poverty; in 2023, only seven countries (South Africa, Algeria, Mauritius, Libya, Seychelles, Botswana, and Equatorial Guinea) exceeded the per capita demand threshold of 8.62 BOE required for rapid human development. By 2050, the Combined scenario increases average per capita demand to 6.2 BOE, allowing 16 countries to meet that threshold.
• The continent is transitioning away from fossil fuels toward renewables like solar, wind, and hydro. In 2023, 95% of Africa's energy came from coal, oil, and gas; by 2050, this share is projected to drop to 65% under the Current Path and 54% in the Combined scenario.
• Despite the shift to renewables, Africa's contribution to global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is expected to increase from 4.5% in 2023 to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.
• Africa's share of global energy demand is projected to grow from 4.7% in 2023 to 18.1% by 2063 in the Combined scenario, driven by population growth and low energy efficiencies.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026energy, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{Energy demand and production in the Combined scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=04-energy-demand}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }