Climate Change Cost-Benefit Analysis for Public Infrastructure in Canada

The report quantifies how extreme heat and rainfall accelerate the deterioration of Canadian public infrastructure, increasing annual costs by $15.1B on average between 2025 and 2100 if no adaptation occurs. It compares 'reactive' and 'proactive' adaptation strategies, finding that proactive upgrades—implemented at the earliest feasible intervention—reduce average annual climate-related costs to $6.5B, a 57% reduction compared to the no-adaptation scenario. The analysis highlights that municipalities bear the heaviest financial burden, owning over 73% of the infrastructure value. A separate flood-risk assessment indicates that structural protection measures can significantly reduce future damages, though returns vary by region.

• Under a stable climate baseline, Canada's public infrastructure is characterized by significant investment gaps, with the total value of assets in 'Fair' condition or worse estimated at $964B, and a reported infrastructure backlog of approximately $294B.
• Climate change significantly increases infrastructure management costs; under a no-adaptation pathway, annual costs rise from $8.8B in the near-term to $19.4B by late century, with a 2025–2100 average of $15.1B per year above stable-climate conditions.
• Proactive adaptation is the most cost-effective strategy, reducing average annual climate-related costs from $15.1B (no adaptation) and $10.6B (reactive adaptation) down to approximately $6.5B.
• The financial burden of climate adaptation falls disproportionately on local and regional governments, who own over 73% of the total infrastructure value; by the end of the century, municipalities are projected to bear 72% of total climate-related infrastructure costs, approximately $14.02B per year.
• Transportation infrastructure is the most impacted asset class, accounting for 63% to 73% of total climate-related costs between 2025 and 2100, with road assets dominating absolute costs.
• Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCRs) for adaptation are positive across all major asset classes, with proactive adaptation consistently outperforming reactive adaptation. In 2025, the national BCR for proactive adaptation is 9.4 compared to 7.5 for reactive.
• Climate-related costs are highly sensitive to emissions pathways; under a no-adaptation scenario, average annual costs increase from $7.39B under low emissions (SSP1-2.6) to $15.15B under medium emissions (SSP2-4.5) and $38.61B under high emissions (SSP3-7.0).
• A separate flood analysis indicates that proactive structural protection (such as elevation or localized barriers) can reduce expected total damages, though the effectiveness varies by province, with British Columbia showing the highest absolute savings of $1,520M by 2085.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2026). Climate Change Cost-Benefit Analysis for Public Infrastructure in Canada. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Technical-Report_Climate-Change-Cost-Benefit-Analysis-Public-Infrastructure-Canada.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. Climate Change Cost-Benefit Analysis for Public Infrastructure in Canada. 2026. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Technical-Report_Climate-Change-Cost-Benefit-Analysis-Public-Infrastructure-Canada.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=Climate Change Cost-Benefit Analysis for Public Infrastructure in Canada |date=20 March 2026 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Technical-Report_Climate-Change-Cost-Benefit-Analysis-Public-Infrastructure-Canada.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitute2026climate, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{Climate Change Cost-Benefit Analysis for Public Infrastructure in Canada}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Technical-Report_Climate-Change-Cost-Benefit-Analysis-Public-Infrastructure-Canada.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }