Impact of the Demographics and Health Scenario

The document analyzes a hypothetical 'Demographics and Health scenario' for Africa, projecting that aggressive improvements in health and WaSH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) infrastructure would lead to a healthier, wealthier population by 2043. Key projections include a significant increase in safely managed sanitation and water access, a reduction in infant mortality and fertility rates, and a decrease in the disease burden. Economically, the scenario suggests that these health improvements would boost GDP per capita, particularly in low-income countries, and reduce the number of extremely poor Africans by 41 million compared to the current path, despite a smaller overall population.

• By 2043, the Demographics and Health scenario projects that 1,034 million Africans (47% of the population) will have safely managed sanitation services, and 57% will have safely managed water services, compared to 39% and 48% respectively on the Current Path.
• The scenario predicts a decline in the disease burden by 2043, with years of life lost due to communicable diseases dropping to 145 million and non-communicable diseases to 157 million, compared to 216 million and 180 million on the Current Path.
• Infant mortality rates in Africa are projected to fall to 20 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2043 under the Demographics and Health scenario, down from 25 on the Current Path. The Central African Republic is expected to see the most gain, while Morocco will gain the least.
• The scenario projects a positive economic impact where Africa's average GDP per capita in 2043 would be US$252 higher than the Current Path, with the most significant gains in low-income countries (4% improvement) and specifically in Mozambique, Liberia, and the DR Congo.
• Improved health and family planning are projected to reduce extreme poverty, resulting in 41 million fewer extremely poor Africans by 2043, with the most significant reductions occurring in Mozambique, Nigeria, and the DR Congo.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Impact of the Demographics and Health Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=05-health-and-wash&topic=04-impact-demographics-health-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of the Demographics and Health Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=05-health-and-wash&topic=04-impact-demographics-health-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of the Demographics and Health Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=05-health-and-wash&topic=04-impact-demographics-health-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of the Demographics and Health Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=05-health-and-wash&topic=04-impact-demographics-health-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }