AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.

• The 'Differentiated Pay' carbon tax scenario assigns tax rates based on a country's income classification: high-income countries pay US$100 per ton of carbon equivalent, upper-middle-income countries pay US$75/ton (phased in over ten years), lower-middle-income countries pay US$50/ton, and low-income countries pay US$25/ton (phased in over 15 years). In 2024, Africa's composition for this tax included one high-income, eight upper-middle-income, 23 lower-middle-income, and 22 low-income countries.
• The 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines a differentiated global carbon tax with a 'Combined scenario', is projected to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide by 3% by 2063. Under this scenario, Africa's carbon emissions from fossil fuels would be lower than the 'Current Path' despite a significantly larger economy.
• By 2050, the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario projects an African economy 58% larger than the 'Current Path', with GDP per capita 45% higher. This scenario estimates that only 139 million Africans would live in extreme poverty, compared to 351 million on the 'Current Path', and GDP per capita would reach US$18,620 compared to US$9,872 on the 'Current Path'.
• Africa is projected to achieve almost total electricity access by 2050, though several countries are expected to still have less than 60% access: DR Congo, Guinea Bissau, Malawi, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, and South Sudan.
• Africa can contribute to a sustainable future as a carbon sink through reforestation and improved land management. In the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, global reforestation is projected to increase carbon absorption to 227 million tons, compared to the 'Current Path' where global carbon emissions from deforestation decline from 278 million tons in 2023 to 15 million tons in 2050.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }