AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

• The 'Differentiated Pay' carbon tax scenario, which assigns tax rates based on income classification (US$100/ton for high-income, US$75/ton for upper-middle, US$50/ton for lower-middle, and US$25/ton for low-income countries), is identified as the most effective for reducing emissions. By 2063, this scenario is projected to reduce global carbon emissions from fossil fuels by 14% (4.57 billion tons of CO equivalent) compared to the Current Path.
• The 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, which combines a differentiated global carbon tax with other factors, projects that by 2050 the African economy will be 58% larger and GDP per capita 45% higher than the Current Path. This scenario also predicts a reduction in extreme poverty from 351 million people to 139 million, and an increase in GDP per capita to US$18,620.
• By 2050, Africa is expected to achieve almost total electricity access, although several countries are projected to remain below 60% access: DR Congo, Guinea Bissau, Malawi, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, and South Sudan.
• Africa can contribute to global sustainability by acting as a carbon sink through reforestation and improved land management, which could incentivize the purchase of carbon credits. In the Sustainable Africa scenario, global reforestation is projected to increase carbon absorption to 227 million tons.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=05-sustainable-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }