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The document analyzes how human land use drives climate change and how climate change, in turn, degrades land. It highlights that while land currently acts as a net carbon sink, it could become a source of emissions. The brief emphasizes the role of agriculture and deforestation in land degradation and warns that current policy trajectories could significantly expand drylands and threaten global food security. It argues that sustainable land management, incorporating indigenous knowledge and gender-sensitive policies, is essential for limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.

The report analyzes Zimbabwe's trajectory to 2040, warning that the 'Current Path' of state-centric governance and economic instability will lead to persistent poverty and food insecurity. It contrasts this with the 'Great Zimbabwe' scenario, where pro-growth policies, transferable land titles, and expanded irrigation could significantly boost GDP and reduce undernourishment. Conversely, the 'Things Fall Apart' scenario predicts a decline into internal conflict and severe humanitarian deterioration if political accountability is not established. Key recommendations emphasize rehabilitating irrigation, improving democratic accountability, and partnering with the IMF to stabilize the economy.

The report examines the environmental impact of US grain production, specifically for breakfast cereals, and proposes that the four companies controlling 86% of the $8.5 billion US market can catalyze a shift toward regenerative agriculture. Through three scenarios based on Iowa State University research, the authors demonstrate that sourcing grains from sustainable rotations (including oats and cover crops) can significantly reduce soil erosion, nitrogen runoff, and nitrous oxide emissions. The document recommends a combination of corporate sourcing commitments and state/federal policy support to help farmers overcome the up-front costs of transitioning to these practices.

The case study explores how stakeholders in Dordrecht, a vulnerable Dutch city, imagine various climate futures to foster participatory climate resilience. Through narrative interviews, four scenarios emerged: a 'doomsday' future involving total dyke failure and depopulation; a 'disruptive' future marked by frequent pluvial flooding and heat stress; a 'challenged but bearable' future where adaptation measures like 'sponge' neighborhoods and increased water room mitigate impacts; and a 'climate resilient safe future' characterized by global carbon neutrality and systemic zero-carbon urban development. The research emphasizes that historical memories of floods, such as the 1421 St. Elisabeth flood, strongly influence current perceptions of risk and the desire for collaborative climate action.

The document assesses biogas as a feasible alternative energy option to help Indonesia meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets. It identifies a lack of government priority as a barrier to even development and proposes two pathways: low-investment household-scale installations and high-investment large-scale electricity production. To accelerate the transition, the authors recommend formulating clear renewable energy targets, strengthening management institutions, and introducing financial incentives like feed-in tariffs.

The report evaluates the N’Diaye wind farm in Senegal using the SAVi tool, which incorporates externalities and climate risks into financial modelling. While traditional analysis suggests coal is the cheapest option, a holistic cost-benefit analysis reveals that wind energy is the most favourable choice due to lower environmental impacts, higher employment generation, and the avoidance of significant social costs of carbon. HFO is found to be financially non-viable across all scenarios.

A collaborative project between Svemin and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) used exploratory scenarios to develop a sustainability roadmap for the Swedish mining sector, identifying 31 key action points to navigate the sector toward a sustainable future by 2050.

The report evaluates the Dakar BRT project, finding that while it is not financially viable under traditional accounting, it generates massive net benefits when externalities like time savings and reduced transport costs are included. The project is expected to reduce GHG emissions and accidents, though it may cause net job losses in traditional transport sectors.

The report finds that Green Public Procurement (GPP) in Canada provides significant benefits over business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios, particularly in reducing operating costs and greenhouse gas emissions. By 2035, sustainable procurement for buildings and vehicles could save nearly CAD 2 billion annually in operating costs. While a 'sustainable plus domestic' scenario for steel and cement increases production costs due to the replacement of imports, it generates higher domestic revenue and employment. The report concludes that GPP reduces total emissions and provides substantial savings when measured by the social cost of carbon.

The document identifies a strategic dilemma for Sweden: relying on biofuels to meet near-term 2030 goals may hinder the transition to electrification, which is viewed as the more cost-effective long-term strategy for 2045. While biofuels currently provide about 20% of truck energy and are expected to remain the primary mid-term solution, stakeholders anticipate a shift toward battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and electric road system technologies starting in the 2030s.

The report argues that the proposed Boliden copper mine in Laver would effectively end traditional Sami reindeer herding for the Semisjaur Njarg community by destroying critical winter pastures. Through scenario analysis, the document demonstrates that the mine would force herders into either unsustainable 'reindeer farming' based on artificial feeding or the total abandonment of the area, both of which threaten intergenerational succession and the survival of the critically endangered Pite Sami language. The report further highlights a systemic failure in the Swedish permitting process to recognize indigenous property rights and the cumulative effects of multiple land encroachments, such as wind farms and forestry, which leave the community at a breaking point.

The analysis finds that Germany's current climate targets are incompatible with the 1.5°C limit, potentially leading to 20% to 130% more emissions than allowed by mid-century. To be indisputably compatible and meet its global responsibility, the report argues Germany must reduce emissions to zero by 2030. It further notes that failing to meet the 2020 target of a 40% reduction has already consumed approximately 10% of Germany's 1.5°C budget for 2010-2050, necessitating a steeper future reduction path.

South Africa faces a cumulative transition risk of over $120 billion in present value terms between 2013 and 2035, primarily driven by declining global demand for coal exports. While investors initially bear the majority of this risk, implicit transfers and contingent liabilities could shift more than half of the total risk onto the national government, potentially jeopardising its investment-grade sovereign credit rating. The report identifies significant risks to state-owned enterprises like Transnet and Eskom, and private entities such as Sasol and Exxaro. Conversely, a global transition could provide a $45.5 billion windfall for consumers through lower oil prices. The document recommends that the South African government avoid new carbon-intensive investments, develop fiscal tools to capture oil windfalls to offset coal losses, and implement transparent transition plans for workers and municipalities.

The report examines how autonomous vehicles (AVs) could affect the Washington, DC, metro region by 2040, finding that while pooled AVs and transit investments increase job access, AVs generally increase total driving and disproportionately increase congestion in low-income neighborhoods and communities of color.

The report evaluates green economy (GE) investments in Georgia, focusing on buildings, agriculture, and tourism. Using the SAVi methodology, it demonstrates that while traditional financial analysis suggests these investments may not be profitable, incorporating environmental, social, and economic externalities reveals a high sustainable internal rate of return (S-IRR) of 84% and a sustainable net present value (S-NPV) of approximately GEL 20.4 billion.

The report finds that currently agreed EU and Member State policies are on track to deliver a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, surpassing the existing 40% target. Using the E3ME model, the analysis suggests that further adjustments to coal phase-outs, energy efficiency, and electric vehicle penetration could increase this reduction to 58%. However, the report warns that the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) remains vulnerable to a growing surplus of allowances as emissions fall faster than the current cap, necessitating reforms such as a one-off cap reset in 2026 to maintain a meaningful carbon price.

The document examines the transition in Sudan after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir, highlighting the tension between the civilian-led Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the military-led Transitional Military Council (TMC). It argues that while regime change occurred on paper, the 'Islamic security state' remains influential. The author outlines five scenarios ranging from a return to the status quo or civil war to successful systemic reform, emphasizing that economic recovery and security sector transformation are critical for success.

The analysis finds that available clean fuels, including electricity, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel, could support a 11.2 percent reduction in average carbon intensity by 2028. Under an 'Accelerated Progress Scenario', reductions of 13.1 percent by 2028 and 16.5 percent by 2030 are achievable. The study also models the impact of electric vehicle (EV) penetration, noting that a 'High EV' scenario could reach a 15.9 percent reduction by 2030, while a 'Low EV' scenario would reach 11.1 percent. Additionally, the report estimates that credit values at $100 per metric ton of CO2 equivalent could fund EV rebates growing from $2,200 per vehicle in 2022 to $3,000 in 2028.

The report details how South Africa's food system contributes to biodiversity loss and climate change while failing to address widespread hunger and malnutrition. It highlights a dualistic agrarian structure and market concentration that marginalizes smallholder farmers. To feed a growing population by 2050, the document advocates for five transformative areas: inclusive regenerative farming, optimal water use, responsible sourcing, reducing food waste, and a dietary shift toward more plants and less meat.

The report applies the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology to Lake Dal in Srinagar, India, to assess conservation options against anthropogenic pressures such as untreated sewage and fertilizer runoff. The analysis concludes that 'business as usual' and certain infrastructure projects, like a proposed road, are insufficient or counterproductive to preventing ecological collapse. The most cost-effective approach identified is a hybrid infrastructure solution combining sewage treatment upgrades, solar photovoltaic power, on-site treatment for lake dwellers, and the construction of an artificial wetland.