Imagining Climate Futures

The case study explores how stakeholders in Dordrecht, a vulnerable Dutch city, imagine various climate futures to foster participatory climate resilience. Through narrative interviews, four scenarios emerged: a 'doomsday' future involving total dyke failure and depopulation; a 'disruptive' future marked by frequent pluvial flooding and heat stress; a 'challenged but bearable' future where adaptation measures like 'sponge' neighborhoods and increased water room mitigate impacts; and a 'climate resilient safe future' characterized by global carbon neutrality and systemic zero-carbon urban development. The research emphasizes that historical memories of floods, such as the 1421 St. Elisabeth flood, strongly influence current perceptions of risk and the desire for collaborative climate action.

• Dordrecht is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geography as an island in the south-western Dutch Delta, situated where tidal sea influences meet rivers, with parts of the city located below sea level and built on clay that hinders rainwater penetration.
• Historical disasters, specifically the St. Elisabeth flood of 1421 and the North Sea Flood of 1953, are deeply embedded in the city's cultural memory and serve as primary references for why current climate action is necessary to prevent recurrence.
• The 'doomsday' scenario envisions a total failure of the dyke structure caused by a combination of westerly storms, high tide, and river discharge, potentially leading to the rapid depopulation of the city as residents move to higher ground.
• In a 'disruptive' future, the city faces frequent pluvial flooding and heat stress that causes infrastructure like bridges to malfunction, despite efforts to increase green areas and rainwater retention.
• A 'challenged but bearable' future relies on adaptation measures such as creating 'sponge' neighborhoods to store excess water locally and removing dykes or widening water channels to give the Dutch Delta more room for water.
• The 'climate resilient safe future' is the most optimistic scenario, requiring global carbon neutrality and local systemic solutions where all urban development is tested for zero-carbon construction and durability against climate extremes.

APA

Marschütz, B. (2019). Imagining Climate Futures. Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/imagining-climate-futures/

Chicago

Marschütz, Benedikt. Imagining Climate Futures. Green European Journal, 2019. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/imagining-climate-futures/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Marschütz |first1=Benedikt |title=Imagining Climate Futures |publisher=Green European Journal |date=12 June 2019 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/imagining-climate-futures/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{marschtz2019imagining, author = {Marschütz, Benedikt}, title = {{Imagining Climate Futures}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2019}, month = jun, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/imagining-climate-futures/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }