Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Bus Rapid Transit Project in Senegal

This report presents a Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project in Dakar, Senegal. The analysis compares a 'Business as Usual' scenario against three BRT implementation scenarios (baseline, low demand, and high demand) to evaluate the project's financial viability and its broader environmental, social, and economic externalities.

• The BRT project is not financially viable under traditional financial assessments, regardless of passenger demand, as discounted cash flows cannot cover capital and operating expenditures.
• Integrating environmental, social, and economic externalities significantly enhances the project's valuation. In the default demand scenario, the internal rate of return (IRR) increases from 2.17% to 37.69%, and the net present value (NPV) rises from USD -51 million to USD 1.5 billion.
• The most significant positive externalities are the avoided costs of transportation and time savings. Avoided transportation costs range from CFA 1.15 trillion in the low-demand scenario to CFA 1.76 trillion in the high-demand scenario.
• The BRT is projected to reduce total vehicle-kilometers travelled by 11.7% compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario by 2040, which contributes to lower air pollution and GHG emissions.
• GHG emissions are expected to decrease across the project lifecycle in all BRT scenarios. By 2040, emissions are projected to be between 8.5% and 13.7% lower than the BAU scenario, depending on demand.
• The project is expected to lead to a net loss of jobs within the transportation sector, with the AFTU bus sector seeing a projected 51% decrease in full-time equivalents (FTE). However, cumulative discretionary spending is projected to be 15.6% higher than the BAU scenario due to improved labor market access.
• The BRT is projected to reduce annual accidents by more than 13% over time due to increased safety and a reduction in total vehicle-kilometers travelled.
• The BRT is projected to decrease total time spent in traffic by approximately 30% in the long run, although congestion is expected to increase during the construction phase.
• Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 10% increase in ticket prices could make the project generate a positive NPV of USD 11 million, provided there is high passenger demand.

APA

Bassi, A. M., Casier, L., Pallaske, G., & Uzsoki, D. (2019). Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Bus Rapid Transit Project in Senegal. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-en.pdf

Chicago

Bassi, Andrea M., Liesbeth Casier, Georg Pallaske, and David Uzsoki. Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Bus Rapid Transit Project in Senegal. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-en.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bassi |first1=Andrea M. |last2=Casier |first2=Liesbeth |last3=Pallaske |first3=Georg |last4=Uzsoki |first4=David |title=Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Bus Rapid Transit Project in Senegal |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-en.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bassi2019sustainable, author = {Bassi, Andrea M. and Casier, Liesbeth and Pallaske, Georg and Uzsoki, David}, title = {{Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Bus Rapid Transit Project in Senegal}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-en.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }