Great Zimbabwe

The report analyzes Zimbabwe's trajectory to 2040, warning that the 'Current Path' of state-centric governance and economic instability will lead to persistent poverty and food insecurity. It contrasts this with the 'Great Zimbabwe' scenario, where pro-growth policies, transferable land titles, and expanded irrigation could significantly boost GDP and reduce undernourishment. Conversely, the 'Things Fall Apart' scenario predicts a decline into internal conflict and severe humanitarian deterioration if political accountability is not established. Key recommendations emphasize rehabilitating irrigation, improving democratic accountability, and partnering with the IMF to stabilize the economy.

• Zimbabwe currently has the seventh highest undernourishment rate globally, and projections suggest it will remain among the top 10 by 2030 and top 15 by 2040 on its current trajectory.
• The country's agricultural productivity has been declining since the late 1970s, and without policy changes, Zimbabwe's dependence on food imports is expected to increase to over 50% of total demand by 2040.
• Zimbabwe possesses a well-educated population and a favorable age structure that could provide a demographic dividend by the mid-2030s, provided that jobs, healthcare, and basic services are improved.
• The education system faces a critical bottleneck at the transition from Ordinary Level to Advanced Level, with only 23% of students who enroll in Form 4 proceeding to the Advanced Level cycle.
• Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure is in severe disrepair, with approximately 10 million people lacking access to improved sanitation in 2018, contributing to recurrent cholera outbreaks in Harare.
• The 'Great Zimbabwe' scenario demonstrates that making land titles transferable and increasing irrigated land to 340,900 hectares by 2040 could nearly double total crop production compared to the current path and reduce the undernourished population to 11% by 2040.
• The 'Things Fall Apart' scenario suggests that a failure to resolve the financial crisis and a lack of electoral transparency in 2023 could lead to state-led violence, a decline in FDI, and an increase in extreme poverty to 10 million people by 2040.
• Zimbabwe's economy is characterized by a massive informal sector, which contributed an average of 61% to GDP between 1991 and 2015, and a high level of public debt that may have reached 94% of GDP in 2018.

APA

Welborn, L., Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2019). Great Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-23-3.pdf

Chicago

Welborn, Lily, Jakkie Cilliers, and Stellah Kwasi. Great Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-23-3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Welborn |first1=Lily |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Kwasi |first3=Stellah |title=Great Zimbabwe |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-23-3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{welborn2019great, author = {Welborn, Lily and Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Great Zimbabwe}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-23-3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }