Concerned Scientists Study Finds Ample Supply of Clean Fuels for Washington Clean Fuels Program

The analysis finds that available clean fuels, including electricity, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel, could support a 11.2 percent reduction in average carbon intensity by 2028. Under an 'Accelerated Progress Scenario', reductions of 13.1 percent by 2028 and 16.5 percent by 2030 are achievable. The study also models the impact of electric vehicle (EV) penetration, noting that a 'High EV' scenario could reach a 15.9 percent reduction by 2030, while a 'Low EV' scenario would reach 11.1 percent. Additionally, the report estimates that credit values at $100 per metric ton of CO2 equivalent could fund EV rebates growing from $2,200 per vehicle in 2022 to $3,000 in 2028.

• Available clean fuels are sufficient to meet a 2028 target of an 11.2 percent reduction in average carbon intensity. The primary fuel pathways contributing to this include electricity, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and lower carbon sources of ethanol blended into gasoline, with additional contributions from renewable aviation fuel and biomethane. Projections through 2030 suggest these results are consistent with achieving a carbon intensity of 20 percent by 2035.
• An 'Accelerated Progress Scenario' involving increased emissions reductions from renewable natural gas, ethanol, and biodiesel shows that reductions of 13.1 percent by 2028 and 16.5 percent by 2030 are possible.
• The level of electric vehicle (EV) deployment significantly impacts carbon intensity reductions. A 'High EV' scenario, where Washington's penetration equals California's (exceeding 700,000 vehicles by 2030), achieves reductions of 12.3 percent in 2028 and 15.9 percent in 2030. Conversely, a 'Low EV' scenario, where Washington trails California by 5 years (fewer than 400,000 vehicles by 2030), achieves 9.0 percent in 2028 and 11.1 percent in 2030.
• The program could generate significant credit values based on CO2 equivalent emissions reductions. At a price of $100 per metric ton (MT COze), biodiesel would produce a credit value of 52 cents per gallon, and alternative jet fuel from woody residues would produce 84 cents per gallon. These credits could fund EV rebates that increase from $2,200 per vehicle in 2022 to $3,000 in 2028.

APA

Malins, C. (2019). Concerned Scientists Study Finds Ample Supply of Clean Fuels for Washington Clean Fuels Program. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/WA-clean-fuel-2019-summary.pdf

Chicago

Malins, Chris. Concerned Scientists Study Finds Ample Supply of Clean Fuels for Washington Clean Fuels Program. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2019. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/WA-clean-fuel-2019-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Malins |first1=Chris |title=Concerned Scientists Study Finds Ample Supply of Clean Fuels for Washington Clean Fuels Program |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=2019 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/WA-clean-fuel-2019-summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{malins2019concerned, author = {Malins, Chris}, title = {{Concerned Scientists Study Finds Ample Supply of Clean Fuels for Washington Clean Fuels Program}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2019}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/WA-clean-fuel-2019-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }