Prospects for a Transformed Sudan

The document examines the transition in Sudan after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir, highlighting the tension between the civilian-led Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the military-led Transitional Military Council (TMC). It argues that while regime change occurred on paper, the 'Islamic security state' remains influential. The author outlines five scenarios ranging from a return to the status quo or civil war to successful systemic reform, emphasizing that economic recovery and security sector transformation are critical for success.

• The 2019 Sudanese Revolution, sparked by economic crises including the cost of bread and fuel, ended the 30-year rule of the National Congress Party and former president Omar al-Bashir.
• Despite the establishment of a power-sharing agreement and a civilian-led cabinet under Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, the military and Islamist elements maintain significant control over government institutions and the security apparatus.
• The success of the transition is threatened by the influence of Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), who controls the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), gold trade, and maintains close ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
• The author identifies five potential scenarios for Sudan: the Status Quo (where NCP forces stall reforms), a Tug of War (partial reforms but security sector deadlock), Reversal (Islamists and military regain power), the Worst Case (civil war and state disintegration), and Reform (successful partnership with armed opposition and security sector transformation).
• Economic recovery is viewed as one of the most critical factors for the success of the transitional government, as improved living conditions increase the Prime Minister's chances of succeeding.
• International stakeholders, including the Troika (US, UK, Norway) and Gulf countries, are urged to pressure the government for security sector transformation and provide debt relief and financial assistance conditional on transparency and accountability.

APA

Johnson, H. F. (2019). Prospects for a Transformed Sudan. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d4cb8213-b853-406f-9a76-b537a5b3f1a3/Johnson Hilde F - Prospects for a Transformed Sudan PRIO Policy Brief 16-2019.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Johnson, Hilde Frafjord. Prospects for a Transformed Sudan. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2019. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d4cb8213-b853-406f-9a76-b537a5b3f1a3/Johnson Hilde F - Prospects for a Transformed Sudan PRIO Policy Brief 16-2019.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Hilde Frafjord |title=Prospects for a Transformed Sudan |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2019 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d4cb8213-b853-406f-9a76-b537a5b3f1a3/Johnson Hilde F - Prospects for a Transformed Sudan PRIO Policy Brief 16-2019.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnson2019prospects, author = {Johnson, Hilde Frafjord}, title = {{Prospects for a Transformed Sudan}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2019}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d4cb8213-b853-406f-9a76-b537a5b3f1a3/Johnson Hilde F - Prospects for a Transformed Sudan PRIO Policy Brief 16-2019.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }