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This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the trajectories of political violence in Sudan and South Sudan following the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS). Using ACLED and UCDP GED data, it examines whether these agreements resolved, reshaped, or perpetuated violence, concluding that while the CPA ended a long civil war, it left other conflict systems unaddressed and reinforced a pattern of state-led political violence. In South Sudan, the ARCSS is described as having failed due to poor implementation and a 'winner-takes-all' political framework that incentivized continued violent competition for power.

This policy briefing examines how the governance of oil resources contributed to the secession of Southern Sudan. It argues that the failure of the National Congress Party (NCP) to ensure fair revenue sharing, transparency, and local community development convinced Southern Sudanese that they would benefit more from an independent state than from a united Sudan.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the security challenges and potential scenarios surrounding the January 9, 2011, referendum on South Sudan's right to secede from Sudan. It examines the political dynamics between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the risks of a return to war, and the roles of regional and international actors in maintaining stability during the transition.