Halfway There – Sandbag March 2019

The report finds that currently agreed EU and Member State policies are on track to deliver a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, surpassing the existing 40% target. Using the E3ME model, the analysis suggests that further adjustments to coal phase-outs, energy efficiency, and electric vehicle penetration could increase this reduction to 58%. However, the report warns that the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) remains vulnerable to a growing surplus of allowances as emissions fall faster than the current cap, necessitating reforms such as a one-off cap reset in 2026 to maintain a meaningful carbon price.

• Existing climate policies agreed by the EU and Member States are projected to achieve a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels, suggesting the baseline ambition should be raised to at least 50%.
• The power sector is the primary driver of emissions cuts, accounting for half of the reductions between 2018 and 2030 as coal is replaced by renewable electricity, while also enabling the decarbonisation of transport, industry, and heating through electrification.
• By implementing a 'Moderate' scenario or an 'Advanced' scenario—which include more aggressive coal phase-outs, higher energy efficiency, and increased electric vehicle penetration—the EU could achieve GHG reductions of 53% and 58% respectively by 2030.
• The report identifies a discrepancy between its findings and the European Commission's 2050 Long-term Strategy, which projected a 46% reduction by 2030; this is primarily because the Commission's model does not fully account for announced national coal phase-outs.
• The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is not robust to rapid emissions cuts, as the gap between the cap and actual emissions is expected to increase, leading to a rising surplus of allowances that could render carbon prices irrelevant.
• To address the ETS surplus, the report argues that increasing the Linear Reduction Factor (LRF) alone is insufficient; instead, it recommends a one-off reset of the cap in 2026 to align it with actual emissions levels.
• The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) could potentially drive reductions of up to 50% in non-traded sectors alone if interactions are managed properly and cost-effective potentials are better aligned across Member States.
• To improve the effectiveness of the ESR, the report suggests moving certain sectors (such as district heating and upstream transport fuel production) into the EU ETS and allowing private sector investors to hold and transfer AEAs.

APA

Ember (2019). Halfway There – Sandbag March 2019. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Halfway-There-2019-Sandbag.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Halfway There – Sandbag March 2019. 2019. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Halfway-There-2019-Sandbag.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Halfway There – Sandbag March 2019 |date=2019 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Halfway-There-2019-Sandbag.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2019halfway, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Halfway There – Sandbag March 2019}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2019}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Halfway-There-2019-Sandbag.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }