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The report finds that currently agreed EU and Member State policies are on track to deliver a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, surpassing the existing 40% target. Using the E3ME model, the analysis suggests that further adjustments to coal phase-outs, energy efficiency, and electric vehicle penetration could increase this reduction to 58%. However, the report warns that the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) remains vulnerable to a growing surplus of allowances as emissions fall faster than the current cap, necessitating reforms such as a one-off cap reset in 2026 to maintain a meaningful carbon price.