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1,858 documents from Institute for Security Studies
Mozambique: INTRODUCTION
This introductory research paper provides a socio-economic profile of Mozambique, detailing its transition from a period of rapid post-civil war growth (1993-2015) to a more recent period of economic slowdown and structural challenges. It highlights the country's extreme poverty, high inequality, and the risks and opportunities associated with its extractive industries.
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Document type: Research paper
DR Congo: Conclusion
This report conclusion outlines the development challenges and strategic policy recommendations for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth, warning that the country is currently on a path to fail most 2030 SDG targets.
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Document type: Report
Côte d'Ivoire: Conclusion
This conclusion section of the 'Côte d'Ivoire Development Futures' report outlines policy recommendations to accelerate development in Côte d'Ivoire, emphasizing a holistic strategy across eight sectors to reduce poverty and increase GDP by 2043.
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Document type: Report
DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This research paper outlines a series of scenario interventions for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) using the IFs (Integrated Futures System) model. It details specific multipliers and targets across governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows to project development trajectories from 2024 to 2043, culminating in a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario'.
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Document type: Research paper
EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report analyzes economic and social development projections for Equatorial Guinea up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast with a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The latter scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, predicts significantly higher GDP per capita, a larger overall economy, and a reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Libya: Introduction
This introductory report provides a geographic, demographic, and socio-economic overview of Libya, detailing its status as an upper-middle-income country heavily dependent on oil reserves and currently experiencing political fragmentation and institutional instability.
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Document type: Report
Mali: Introduction
This introductory report provides a geographic, environmental, and political overview of Mali, detailing its climate challenges, history of military coups, and shifting international alliances, including its withdrawal from ECOWAS to form the Confederation of Sahel States.
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Document type: Report
LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Lesotho, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions to forecast economic growth, poverty reduction, and carbon emissions by 2043 compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.
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Document type: Research paper
Malawi: Conclusion
The report concludes that while Malawi's 'Combined scenario' shows economic growth and improved life expectancy by 2043, it will likely miss its MW2063 targets for urbanisation, health, and lower-middle-income status. Key challenges include climate vulnerability in rain-fed agriculture, infrastructure deficits, and governance issues. Recommended actions focus on industrial diversification, climate-smart agriculture, digitisation of tax systems, and expanded education and healthcare funding.
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Document type: Report
GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This research paper presents the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Guinea-Bissau, an integrated forecast combining 11 sectoral scenarios to estimate economic and social outcomes by 2043. The scenario projects significant increases in GDP per capita and overall economic size, alongside a reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.
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Document type: Research paper
Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares various development scenarios for Mozambique from 2020 to 2043. It evaluates the impact of sectoral interventions—such as agriculture, governance, and infrastructure—on GDP, poverty rates, and life expectancy, while highlighting a 'Combined scenario' that integrates these efforts to accelerate structural economic transformation.
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Document type: Research paper
GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This research paper analyzes a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for The Gambia, forecasting the economic and environmental impacts of integrating 11 sectoral development scenarios by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP per capita and a sharp reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.
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Document type: Research paper
Libya: Conclusion and Recommendations
This report provides policy recommendations for Libya to transition from fragility to stability, focusing on governance reform, security sector restructuring, economic diversification away from oil, and decentralization of power.
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Document type: Report
Mauritania: Conclusion and Recommendations
This report provides conclusions and policy recommendations for Mauritania's economic development, highlighting that while macroeconomic indicators are trending upwards, growth remains heavily dependent on the extractive sector and is hindered by poor infrastructure, governance issues, and climate risks. The author argues for a holistic development strategy focusing on climate resilience, governance, human capital, and economic diversification to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.
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Document type: Report
Kenya Development Futures: Geographic Futures
This research paper conclusion outlines the economic trajectory of Kenya, highlighting its potential for significant GDP growth by 2043 through strategic sectoral interventions and a transition to renewable energy, while identifying critical governance and infrastructure barriers.
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Document type: Research paper
MOROCCO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report conclusion outlines development projections for Morocco up to 2043, detailing demographic shifts, economic forecasts across various sectoral scenarios, and policy recommendations to achieve sustainable growth and stability.
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Document type: Report
Comoros: Introduction
This research paper provides an introductory overview of Comoros, detailing its geography, climate vulnerability, economic structure, and political history. It highlights the intersection of natural hazards, such as cyclones, and political instability as primary barriers to the country's sustainable development.
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Document type: Research paper
Mauritania: Introduction
This introductory report provides a geographic, demographic, political, and economic overview of Mauritania, detailing its arid climate, multi-ethnic society, and an economy heavily reliant on mining.
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Document type: Report
ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report outlines the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Eswatini, a forecasting model that integrates 11 sectoral interventions to remove constraints to growth. The scenario projects significant increases in GDP per capita and overall economic size by 2043, alongside a substantial reduction in poverty, though it also forecasts an increase in carbon emissions due to ambitious economic growth.
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Document type: Report
Ethiopia: Introduction
This introductory report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a geographic, climatic, and socio-political overview of Ethiopia, detailing its landlocked status, diverse ethnic landscape, and ongoing internal conflicts.
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Document type: Report