ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Eritrea, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social development. The scenario projects significant increases in GDP and reductions in extreme poverty by 2043, driven primarily by free trade and leapfrogging, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, identifies 'Free Trade' and 'Leapfrogging' (improving broadband Internet and electricity access) as the drivers with the most significant impact on GDP per capita by 2043. The 'Demographic' scenario is noted as having the least impact. The integrated synergistic effect of all scenarios is projected to contribute US$906.8 to GDP per capita in 2043.
• Compared to the 'Current Path' forecast, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects a substantial increase in GDP per capita. By 2033, it is forecast to be US$552 higher, and by 2043, it is expected to reach US$6,630, which is US$2,900 more than the Current Path forecast for that year.
• The scenario projects a significant reduction in extreme poverty (measured at US$1.90). By 2033, the extreme poverty rate is forecast at 23.1% (approximately 270,000 fewer poor people than the Current Path). By 2043, the rate is projected to decline to 2.8% (140,000 people), a reduction of 10.2 percentage points or 540,000 people compared to the Current Path forecast of 13% (680,000 people).
• The Eritrean economy is projected to expand from US$2.4 billion in 2019 to US$20.4 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, representing a 750% increase. The service sector is expected to dominate the economy, with its value in 2043 forecast to be US$8.9 billion larger than in the Current Path, while the manufacturing sector's contribution is forecast to be 11.3 percentage points below the Current Path.
• Increased economic activity in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to lead to higher environmental degradation. Carbon emissions are forecast to increase from 200,000 tons in 2019 to 1.5 million tons by 2043 (a 650% increase), which is 500,000 tons higher than the Current Path forecast for 2043.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026eritrea, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }