ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for Eritrea projects significant GDP growth, poverty reduction, and a shift toward a service-dominated economy by 2043, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Eritrea's GDP from US$2.4 billion in 2019 to US$20.4 billion by 2043, representing a 750% increase compared to 321% in the Current Path forecast.
• The scenario predicts a significant reduction in extreme poverty (at US$1.90). By 2043, the extreme poverty rate is expected to drop to 2.8% (140,000 people), compared to 13% (680,000 people) in the Current Path forecast.
• Free Trade and Leapfrogging (improving electricity and broadband Internet access) are identified as the scenarios with the most significant impact on GDP per capita by 2043, while the Demographic scenario has the least impact.
• The service sector is forecast to dominate the economy, with its contribution to GDP in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario being US$8.9 billion larger than the Current Path forecast by 2043.
• Increased economic activity under this scenario is projected to raise carbon emissions from 200,000 tons in 2019 to 1.5 million tons by 2043, a 650% increase compared to 400% in the Current Path forecast.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026eritrea, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{ERITREA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Combined Agenda 2063 scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }