ISS African Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a development forecast for Eswatini up to 2043. It outlines a 'Current Path' (CP) based on existing policies and evaluates 11 sectoral intervention scenarios, culminating in a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economic growth, poverty reduction, health, and energy transition, highlighting Eswatini's high per capita income relative to its peers despite endemic poverty and a high HIV/AIDS burden.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Eswatini's population is projected to grow to 1.6 million by 2043, an increase of 405,000 people. The country is expected to enter its first demographic dividend as early as 2027 due to shrinking youth dependency.
• Eswatini maintains higher GDP per capita than other lower middle-income African countries. In the Current Path forecast, GDP per capita is expected to reach US$15,162 by 2043, which is US$6,020 above the projected average for lower middle-income Africa.
• Extreme poverty remains a significant challenge; the Current Path forecast predicts a poverty rate of 47.1% (using the US$3.20 benchmark) by 2043, affecting 750,000 people. This is 8.8 percentage points higher than the average for lower middle-income Africa.
• Eswatini is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports from South Africa's Eskom utility, but its master energy plan promotes independent power providers. By 2043, renewable energy is forecast to be the largest share of the country's energy production.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is identified as the most impactful intervention for poverty reduction, potentially lowering the poverty rate to 38.5% by 2043 and lifting an additional 140,000 people out of poverty.
• The Leapfrogging scenario focuses on technology and energy access, projecting that total electricity access could reach 99.3% by 2043, with rural access increasing from 62.5% in 2019 to 100% by 2040.
• The Agriculture scenario aims to reduce food insecurity and import dependency by increasing irrigation and yields. It is projected to reduce the poverty rate by 4.2 percentage points compared to the Current Path by 2043, lifting 70,000 additional people out of poverty.
• The Education scenario could increase literacy rates from 92.6% to 100% by 2031 and raise mean years of education to 8.2 years by 2043, compared to 7.9 years in the Current Path.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral interventions, could raise GDP per capita to US$22,901 by 2043 and reduce the poverty rate to 24.5%, lifting an additional 400,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path.
• Carbon emissions in Eswatini are projected to increase from 100,000 tons in 2019 to 1.1 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path. The Free Trade scenario is expected to cause the highest increase in emissions due to substantial economic growth.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }