Eswatini Development Futures

The report forecasts Eswatini's development to 2043, noting that while GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$15,162 under the Current Path, poverty will remain high at 47.1%. It evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, finding that the Free Trade scenario (AfCFTA implementation) offers the most significant potential for poverty reduction and income growth. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests GDP per capita could reach US$22,901 and poverty could drop to 24.5% if all interventions are implemented.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Eswatini's population is projected to reach 1.6 million by 2043, with the country potentially entering its first demographic dividend as early as 2027 due to shrinking youth dependency.
• Eswatini's GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$15,162 by 2043 in the Current Path, which is US$6,020 and US$8,005 above the projected averages for lower middle-income Africa and Africa, respectively.
• The poverty rate is projected to decline to 47.1% by 2043 in the Current Path forecast, which remains 8.8 percentage points above the average for lower middle-income Africa.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034, is identified as having the largest impact on poverty reduction, potentially lowering the rate to 38.5% by 2043.
• In the Leapfrogging scenario, electricity access is projected to reach 99.3% by 2043, with rural access specifically increasing from 62.5% in 2019 to 100% by 2040.
• The Agriculture scenario could reduce the poverty rate by 4.2 percentage points compared to the Current Path by 2043, lifting an additional 70,000 people out of poverty through improved yields and irrigation.
• The Education scenario is projected to increase literacy rates to 100% by 2031 and raise mean years of education to 8.2 years by 2043, compared to 7.9 years in the Current Path.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral interventions, could raise GDP per capita to US$22,901 and reduce the poverty rate to 24.5% by 2043.
• Eswatini's energy production is currently heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports from South Africa's Eskom, but renewable energy is forecast to make up the largest share of production by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase most in the Free Trade scenario, with an additional 700,000 tons by 2043 compared to 2019, reflecting the associated economic growth.

APA

le Roux, A. (2026). Eswatini Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

le Roux, Alize. Eswatini Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |title=Eswatini Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026eswatini, author = {le Roux, Alize}, title = {{Eswatini Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }