Eritrea Development Futures

The report projects that Eritrea's economy will grow from US$2.4 billion in 2019 to US$10.1 billion by 2043 under a Current Path scenario, with extreme poverty falling to 13%. It evaluates 11 sectoral interventions—including stability, agriculture, and leapfrogging—finding that trade liberalization and digital/energy infrastructure have the highest potential to increase GDP per capita. A combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests GDP could reach US$20.4 billion by 2043, though this would increase carbon emissions to 1.5 million tons.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Eritrea's economy is projected to grow from US$2.4 billion in 2019 to US$10.1 billion by 2043, with GDP per capita reaching US$3,728.
• Extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 threshold) is forecast to decline from 38.9% (1.36 million people) in 2019 to 13% (680,000 people) by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Carbon emissions are expected to rise from 200,000 tons in 2019 to 1 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, though the report notes this is from a very low base.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario, focusing on renewable energy and ICT, would increase electricity access to 92.1% of the population by 2043, compared to the Current Path's 77.1%.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, based on the full implementation of the AfCFTA, is identified as having the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, reaching US$4,175.
• Agricultural productivity is a critical vulnerability; on the Current Path, agricultural demand is forecast to exceed production by 1.4 million metric tons by 2043.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, could increase GDP to US$20.4 billion and reduce extreme poverty to 2.8% by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to higher environmental degradation, with carbon emissions reaching 1.5 million tons by 2043.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). Eritrea Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Eritrea Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Eritrea Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026eritrea, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Eritrea Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }