ISS African Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides development forecasts for Eritrea up to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' scenario—based on existing policies and conditions—against various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economic growth, poverty reduction, and carbon emissions, highlighting the potential for significant GDP growth and poverty alleviation if comprehensive policy reforms are implemented across sectors such as trade, infrastructure, and governance.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Eritrea's economy is projected to grow from US$2.4 billion in 2019 to US$10.1 billion by 2043, making it the 44th largest economy in Africa. GDP per capita is forecast to rise from US$1,671 in 2019 to US$3,728 by 2043, which is US$62 lower than the projected average for low-income African countries.
• Extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 threshold) in Eritrea was 38.9% (1.36 million people) in 2019. On the Current Path, this is forecast to decline to 13% (680,000 people) by 2043, a rate significantly lower than the 25.1% projected average for low-income African countries.
• Eritrea's population is projected to increase by 51%, growing from 3.5 million in 2019 to approximately 5.3 million by 2043. The population is characterized by a significant youth bulge, with 42% under age 15 and 26.4% under age 30 in 2019.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, projects a dramatic economic expansion with GDP reaching US$20.4 billion by 2043. In this scenario, GDP per capita would reach US$6,630, and the extreme poverty rate would drop to 2.8% (140,000 people) by 2043.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034, is identified as having the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, projecting a value of US$4,175.
• The Leapfrogging scenario focuses on digital and energy infrastructure, projecting that 92.1% of Eritreans will have electricity access by 2043. It also forecasts fixed broadband subscriptions increasing to 45.4 per 100 people by 2043, compared to 2.3 per 100 in 2019.
• Agricultural productivity is a critical vulnerability; on the Current Path, agricultural demand is forecast to exceed production by 1.4 million metric tons by 2043. The Agriculture scenario could reduce this import dependence from 29.3% to 3.4% of total demand.
• Carbon emissions in Eritrea are currently very low but are projected to increase from 200,000 tons in 2019 to 1 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path. In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, emissions are projected to reach 1.5 million tons by 2043 due to increased economic activity.
• The report notes that Eritrea is 'Africa's most secretive state,' with the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice as the only legal party. This political environment, including mandatory military training, has led to significant depopulation as young people emigrate.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ER&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }