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The research paper assesses the political landscape of Ethiopia, characterized by a divide between 'Ethiopianist' and 'ethnonationalist' perspectives. It analyzes theoretical models of constitutional design—specifically consociationalism, centripetalism, and integrationism—and proposes several hybrid models to reconcile these opposing views. The author argues that no single design can satisfy all parties and suggests that a combination of power-sharing, vote-pooling, and national identity-building is the most viable path toward stability.

The report examines the systemic failure of police accountability in South Africa, arguing that the existence of the Independent Police Investigative Directorate (IPID) has inadvertently allowed the South African Police Service (SAPS) to neglect its own internal duty to monitor and report on the use of force. It highlights a 'vicious cycle' where high levels of police violence overwhelm the external oversight body, while internal accountability remains minimal due to outdated policies and legal protections like the right to silence. The author recommends that SAPS leadership be held directly accountable by Parliament, that the service implement a comprehensive Use of Force Policy developed by the Civilian Secretariat for Police Service, and that internal reporting systems be strengthened to record all firearm discharges, not just those resulting in death or complaints.

The document argues that mitigating violent extremism in Southern Africa requires leveraging the youth demographic, who are both victims and perpetrators of the insurgency in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province. It highlights that youth vulnerability to radicalisation is driven by governance deficits, poverty, and marginalisation. The brief recommends that the Mozambican government, SADC, and the AU move beyond military responses to include youth-led interventions such as interfaith dialogue, policy advocacy for empowerment, and support for the reintegration of former fighters.

The report analyzes the proposed Africa-EU strategy ahead of the October 2020 summit, comparing EU priorities with the AU's Agenda 2063. It identifies gaps in the EU's approach, particularly regarding poverty, health, debt cancellation, and infrastructure, and recommends a revamped partnership based on mutual accountability and a people-centred approach.

The monograph evaluates the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' (STGIA2020) initiative, concluding that the continent is far from achieving a conflict-free state. While the AU established coordinating structures and the 2016 Lusaka Master Roadmap, progress is hampered by conceptual confusion, institutional weaknesses, and a lack of political will among member states. The report highlights the critical role of small arms and light weapons (SALWs) proliferation, driven by foreign imports—particularly from Russia—and local craft production. It identifies governance deficits, youth unemployment, and foreign military presence as key drivers of instability. The authors recommend redefining the initiative as a multi-year programme focused on arms control and strengthening monitoring and evaluation frameworks.

The report finds that COVID-19 is set to undo several years of development progress in Africa, with the economy projected to be between US$335 billion and US$617 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. It highlights a severe risk of a debt crisis, significant reductions in health expenditure, and a widening gap in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly regarding extreme poverty. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the report warns that indirect deaths from reduced health spending and disrupted care for diseases like HIV and malaria could be substantial. Recommendations include accelerating digitisation, improving water and sanitation (WaSH) infrastructure, and securing comprehensive debt relief.

The document examines Africa's response to COVID-19, highlighting the tension between implementing lockdowns to protect fragile health systems and the resulting economic risks due to high informality and poverty. It notes that while some countries adopted rapid mitigation strategies and leveraged experience from previous epidemics, systemic gaps in water access and health funding leave the continent vulnerable as infection rates accelerate.

The document outlines the initial spread of COVID-19 across Africa, noting that while mortality rates were initially lower than in other regions due to a youthful population, community transmission accelerated rapidly by mid-2020. It highlights the uneven impact across countries, the heavy socio-economic toll of containment measures, and the global scale of the crisis, which the IMF described as the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression.

The document examines how COVID-19 transitioned from a health crisis to a systemic human development crisis in Africa, highlighting the severe economic contraction faced by energy exporters and tourism-dependent nations. It notes that while developed economies initially bore a higher infection burden, the economic downturn is universal, potentially triggering debt crises and defaults. However, the report suggests the pandemic could accelerate digitisation and a transition toward a sustainable economy powered by renewable energy.

The report concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to reverse recent progress in poverty reduction and hinder the achievement of the 2030 SDGs and Agenda 2063. While health impacts are expected to worsen, the primary driver of suffering in Africa is projected to be the economic consequences of the pandemic. To prevent a 'lost decade', the author recommends strengthening health systems, improving water and sanitation, leveraging digital technologies for economic transformation, and securing substantial debt relief.

The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa, concluding that the pandemic will cause a severe development setback. It forecasts that Africa's economy will be between US$349 billion and US$643 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic projections. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct COVID-19 mortality, the report warns that reduced health expenditure and high debt levels could lead to significant indirect deaths and a systemic human development crisis. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased domestic health spending, and accelerated digitisation to build long-term resilience.

The report analyses Tunisia's socio-economic challenges, including stagnant growth, high youth unemployment, and a large informal sector, while projecting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's strong human capital but warns that poor governance and an opaque economic system hinder progress. The analysis compares a 'Current Path' with three scenarios: 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality', concluding that substantive governance reform is essential for any successful transition.

The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while the continent's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the economic shock will likely erase years of progress in poverty reduction and hinder the achievement of 2030 SDGs. The analysis emphasizes that the primary suffering will stem from economic contraction and a resulting debt crisis rather than direct virus mortality. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased health spending, and investment in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure to build long-term resilience.

The report analyzes national dialogues in Sudan, South Sudan, and Kenya, identifying key success and failure factors such as inclusivity, convener credibility, and implementation mechanisms. It argues that Ethiopia's current political transition, marked by ethnic tensions and the deferral of the 2020 election, could benefit from a similar process to resolve constitutional deadlocks and foster national reconciliation.

The document argues that Africa is experiencing a growing economic divergence from the rest of the world, with GDP per capita projected to be less than one quarter of the global average by 2040. While human well-being indicators like life expectancy have improved, the continent's growth is constrained by an unproductive economic structure dominated by low-end informal services and a slow demographic transition. To ignite a 'growth revolution', the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach focusing on basic infrastructure, reducing fertility rates, and transitioning toward manufacturing and productive agriculture. The brief emphasizes that leveraging the fourth industrial revolution, renewable energy, and the African Continental Free Trade Area, alongside accountable leadership, is essential to reversing commodity dependence and achieving sustainable prosperity.

The report identifies cultural, structural, and workplace barriers that marginalise women in the male-dominated maritime sector in Africa. It highlights a critical lack of gender-disaggregated data and the phenomenon of 'sea blindness' as obstacles to visibility and recruitment. Using South Africa as a primary case study, the report suggests that the United Nations' Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda can provide a framework for improving women's inclusion. Key recommendations include launching public awareness campaigns, implementing gender-sensitive budgeting, and creating mentorship programmes to bridge the gender gap.

The report examines the lack of controls on the manufacture, import, and export of law enforcement equipment in South Africa that facilitates torture. It identifies a domestic industry producing inherently abusive tools, such as stun belts and electrified shields, and highlights the gap between South Africa's international human rights obligations and its domestic trade practices.

The report analyzes the 2020 Burundian elections, highlighting a transition from President Pierre Nkurunziza to Evariste Ndayishimiye within the CNDD-FDD. It describes a political environment marked by an "autocratic drift," systemic repression of opposition parties like the CNL, and a fragile economy where 65% of the population lives below the poverty line. The author argues that the new president faces a "double guardianship" from Nkurunziza and a circle of powerful generals, which may hinder necessary democratic and socio-economic reforms.

The report examines the practice of incumbents stepping aside before presidential elections in Cabo Verde and Madagascar. It argues that while not a complete solution, this practice helps level the electoral playing field by denying incumbents direct control over state resources and security agencies during campaigns. The author suggests that for the practice to be effective, it must be supported by clear constitutional provisions, political will, and broader good governance reforms.

The African Union (AU) and Africa CDC reacted quickly to COVID-19, coordinating health responses and establishing an anti-COVID-19 fund. However, the pandemic has exacerbated security threats in West and Central Africa, where fighting against terrorism and internal conflicts continues despite global ceasefire calls. In the Horn of Africa, the virus has disrupted peace processes and created new instabilities, including the politicisation of response measures and the release of thousands of inmates. The report also highlights the extreme vulnerability of Africa's 25.2 million refugees and internally displaced persons, warning that border closures may increase irregular migration and transmission risks.