Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020

The monograph evaluates the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' (STGIA2020) initiative, concluding that the continent is far from achieving a conflict-free state. While the AU established coordinating structures and the 2016 Lusaka Master Roadmap, progress is hampered by conceptual confusion, institutional weaknesses, and a lack of political will among member states. The report highlights the critical role of small arms and light weapons (SALWs) proliferation, driven by foreign imports—particularly from Russia—and local craft production. It identifies governance deficits, youth unemployment, and foreign military presence as key drivers of instability. The authors recommend redefining the initiative as a multi-year programme focused on arms control and strengthening monitoring and evaluation frameworks.

• The 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' initiative has failed to meet its primary goal, as Africa remains one of the most violent regions globally, with approximately 27,000 conflict-related deaths recorded between 2013 and 2017.
• Small arms and light weapons (SALWs) are a primary driver of violence; over 40 million firearms are held by civilians in Africa, and only about 15% of these are registered.
• Foreign arms imports are significant, with Russia being the largest supplier (49% of imports), and an estimated $4.6 billion in Russian weapons entering Africa annually.
• Local craft production of weapons is widespread in at least 26 African countries, with homemade guns accounting for 60% to 90% of armed robberies and banditry in West Africa.
• Governance deficits and institutional corruption are major obstacles to peace; 18 African countries saw a significant deterioration in governance performance over the last decade.
• The initiative suffers from a lack of conceptual coherence, with different AU bodies interpreting it variously as a campaign, a pool of projects, or a programme.
• Institutional capacity is limited; the STGIA2020 Unit is understaffed, and key response frameworks like the African Standby Force (ASF) have not yet been deployed.
• Political will is lacking among member states, evidenced by failures to honour financial pledges, ratify legal instruments, or secure stockpiled arms.
• Foreign military presence and bases in Africa are viewed as threats to national sovereignty and peace efforts, with some states leasing territory for economic gain.
• The AU lacks a functional monitoring and evaluation tool, as the African Human Security Index (AHSI) has not been established, making it impossible to gauge the impact of activities.

APA

Okumu, W., Atta-Asamoah, A., & Sharamo, R. D. (2020). Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/monograph-203-3.pdf

Chicago

Okumu, Wafula, Andrews Atta-Asamoah, and Roba D Sharamo. Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/monograph-203-3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Okumu |first1=Wafula |last2=Atta-Asamoah |first2=Andrews |last3=Sharamo |first3=Roba D |title=Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/monograph-203-3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{okumu2020silencing, author = {Okumu, Wafula and Atta-Asamoah, Andrews and Sharamo, Roba D}, title = {{Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/monograph-203-3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }