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This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the transformation of narratives regarding Africa, moving from colonial-era stereotypes of poverty and conflict toward a more nuanced portrayal of the continent as a hub of innovation, cultural influence, and geopolitical agency.

This research paper analyzes the economic trajectory of Africa on its 'Current Path' through 2043, highlighting a growing divergence in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world despite an increase in the absolute size of the African economy.

This research paper argues that the UN Security Council (UNSC) requires structural reform due to its eroding authority and a global shift in power. Using forecasting data, the author suggests that future legitimacy depends on including the US, China, and India, while proposing a move away from permanent vetoes toward verifiable criteria for global power and the potential inclusion of regional coalitions.

This research paper outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. Starting in 2026, the scenario models the impact of tariff reductions and productivity increases across Africa, noting a specific 15-year phase-out period for G6 countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). The goal is to simulate how the agreement can boost intra-African trade and shift economies toward higher-value production.

This report analyzes global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and land use, providing forecasts through 2063. It highlights the dominance of coal, the climate impact of LNG, and the roles of major emitters like China, the US, and India, while detailing the specific environmental pressures facing Africa, including deforestation and water scarcity.

The March 2026 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the outcomes of the 39th African Union (AU) Summit, the composition and normative challenges of the Peace and Security Council (PSC), and the adoption of a new memorandum of understanding to coordinate the Africa Standby Force (ASF).

This report assesses the role and effectiveness of community peace accords in seven Kenyan counties: Tana River, Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, and Turkana. It examines the transition from top-down, state-led agreements to community-led processes, highlighting that sustainable peace depends on local ownership, inclusive design, and the integration of traditional customs. The study identifies key drivers of conflict, including resource scarcity, historical marginalisation, and political competition under devolution, while providing policy recommendations to improve the coordination, funding, and legal frameworks supporting these accords.

The February 2026 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the declining influence of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the gap between AU normative frameworks and electoral realities, the limited impact of informal consultations on post-coup transitions, and the critical economic necessity of improving water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure across Africa.

This special report provides a scenario analysis (V, U, and L scenarios) of the impact of COVID-19 on Africa through 2030, focusing on economic indicators, extreme poverty, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets.

This report analyzes education trends and prospects in the Horn of Africa through 2040, highlighting systemic barriers to enrollment, significant gender disparities, and the long-term impact of conflict and instability on educational attainment.

This document outlines the purpose and scope of a special report titled "The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040." The report utilizes the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to analyze Tunisia's current development trajectory and three alternative policy-driven pathways focusing on growth, sustainability and equality, and leapfrogging.

This document is the 'Purpose and Scope' section of a special report titled 'Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040'. It outlines the use of the International Futures modelling platform to analyze Algeria's current development state and project its trajectory to 2040, contrasting a 'Current Path' forecast with a positive 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by democratic governance and prosperity.

This report section outlines three alternative development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to contrast with a 'Current Path' forecast. It identifies five foundational reforms across governance, education, and subsidies that are essential for progress regardless of the chosen pathway.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the 'perfect storm' of climate change, violent extremism, and forced displacement in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB). It argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier,' exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and providing fertile ground for insurgent groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP to recruit and extort populations. The document highlights a shift from the narrative of a shrinking lake to one of extreme weather variability, specifically catastrophic flooding, and provides institutional recommendations for the Lake Chad Basin Commission and national governments to enhance regional resilience.

This policy brief advocates for treating water and sanitation as strategic assets to ensure peace, energy, and food security in Africa. It calls for the adoption of a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach and Strategic Asset Management (SAM) to address a $1 trillion infrastructure gap by 2040. The brief emphasizes that water insecurity acts as a threat multiplier for conflict, particularly in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and recommends integrating water governance into the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) to mitigate risks and promote regional stability.

The 'AFRICA 2043' report by the Institute for Security Studies uses the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to analyze Africa's development trajectory to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) forecast against eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms, aiming to align with the African Union's Agenda 2063.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the future of state governance in the Global South over the next two decades. It examines how demographic shifts, climate change, digital revolutions, and geopolitical multipolarity redefine state legitimacy and function. The study utilizes World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and strategic foresight to propose four global scenarios—Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War—and four state archetypes—Negotiator, System Builder, Fractured, and Collapsed—to help policymakers build institutional resilience.

This report from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the functionality of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) subcommittees, examines the transition to constitutional order in Guinea, analyzes the decline of international humanitarian aid to Africa, and proposes strategies for enhancing continental maritime security, specifically through the Combined Maritime Task Force for the Gulf of Guinea.

The May 2025 Peace & Security Council Report examines escalating tensions between Algeria and Mali, the institutional challenges of AU-ECOWAS collaboration, the rise of 'lawfare' to undermine democracy in Africa, and the role of illicit economies in fueling Sahelian extremism.

The April 2025 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the African Union's (AU) peace and security architecture, focusing on the second term of PAPS Commissioner Bankole Adeoye, regional divisions in North Africa, the new AUSSOM mission in Somalia, and the challenges of mediation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.