The Southern Ocean and Antarctica as a strategic imperative for South Africa

The report argues that South Africa must elevate the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in its strategic planning, as the region is critical for global climate regulation, food security, and maritime safety. While South Africa is the only African state party to the Antarctic Treaty, its diplomatic engagement has been inconsistent. The document highlights rising risks from climate change, such as sea-level rise threatening African coasts, and geopolitical tensions, including Russia's seismic surveying and the blocking of Marine Protected Areas by China and Russia. It suggests South Africa leverage its non-claimant status and role as a logistical gateway to enhance its influence, while warning that its under-resourced navy may struggle with increasing search and rescue demands from growing Antarctic tourism and rerouted shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

• The Southern Ocean is a critical driver of global food security, with nutrients there sustaining between 20% and 75% of global fisheries, representing a value of over R39.1 billion annually.
• The region acts as a global climate buffer, absorbing 75% of heat and 40% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, while Antarctic sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming solar radiation.
• Climate-driven ice melt in Antarctica poses a severe threat to human security in Africa; by 2030, over 116 million Africans may live in low-lying coastal regions vulnerable to sea-level rise.
• Shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly due to instability in the Red Sea, with trade volumes almost doubling since 2023, placing additional pressure on South African ports and search and rescue capacities.
• Antarctic tourism is expanding rapidly, with visitor numbers rising from under 8,000 in 1993-1994 to over 120,000 in 2023-2024, and projections suggest they could exceed 452,000 by the 2033-34 season.
• Governance of the region is hindered by the consensus-based decision-making of the ATS and CCAMLR, where China and Russia have repeatedly blocked the establishment of Marine Protected Areas and krill fishing conservation measures.
• There is growing concern over the 'strategic accumulation of geological data' by some states, specifically Russia's seismic surveying in the Riiser-Larsen and Weddell Seas, despite prohibitions on mineral extraction.
• The Antarctic Treaty System's historical insulation from global politics is under strain, evidenced by the participation of two consultative parties currently engaged in war (Russia and Ukraine) and the politicisation of bids for consultative status for Canada and Belarus.
• South Africa's diplomatic engagement in the region has been characterized by 'consistent inconsistency,' with periods of high activity followed by years of no independent paper submissions to the ATCM, such as in 2023 and 2024.
• While South Africa aims to champion the 'African Agenda,' its actual advocacy for broader African participation in the ATS and CCAMLR has been modest and largely absent from recent submissions.

APA

Marggraff, D. (2026). The Southern Ocean and Antarctica as a strategic imperative for South Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1774420613444-20260324-southernocean-antartica-SAR66.pdf

Chicago

Marggraff, Daniela. The Southern Ocean and Antarctica as a strategic imperative for South Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1774420613444-20260324-southernocean-antartica-SAR66.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Marggraff |first1=Daniela |title=The Southern Ocean and Antarctica as a strategic imperative for South Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2026 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1774420613444-20260324-southernocean-antartica-SAR66.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{marggraff2026southern, author = {Marggraff, Daniela}, title = {{The Southern Ocean and Antarctica as a strategic imperative for South Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1774420613444-20260324-southernocean-antartica-SAR66.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }