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Securing Energy Supply Chains: One Critical Mineral Deal at a Time?
This policy brief examines the United States government's recent shift toward using equity investments to secure critical mineral supply chains, particularly to reduce dependence on China. While these deals provide essential up-front capital and have catalyzed private investment, the author argues that equity alone is insufficient and must be paired with demand-side supports, such as price floors and offtake agreements, to ensure long-term market stability.
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Document type: Policy brief
Why betting on rising demand for met coal in Asia is a losing strategy
The report argues that betting on long-term growth for metallurgical coal (met coal) is a losing strategy as demand plateaus due to China's economic shift and the rise of low-carbon steel production. It highlights the risk of stranded assets given the volume of planned mine expansions and recommends that governments accelerate the transition to green steel through subsidy reform and public procurement.
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Document type: Report
2025 in Review
In 2025, record solar and wind growth met 99% of global electricity demand increases, causing fossil fuel generation to decline for the first time since 2020. Renewables surpassed coal as a share of global electricity generation for the first time in a century, reaching 33.8%.
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Document type: Report
Electricity demand and supply trends
This report by Ember analyzes global electricity demand and supply trends in 2025 and over the preceding two decades. It details the growth of low-carbon sources, specifically solar and wind, and the relative decline of fossil fuels, while noting the impact of weather and policy on national energy mixes.
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Document type: Report
Clearing the Air on Reclaimed Refrigerant
This executive summary by RMI evaluates the performance of reclaimed R-410A refrigerant compared to virgin refrigerant in HVAC systems. The report argues that scaling the recovery and reclamation of refrigerants from retired equipment is essential to bridge the supply-demand gap created by the U.S. HFC phasedown under the AIM Act, demonstrating that reclaimed refrigerants meeting AHRI 700 standards provide performance parity with virgin supply.
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Document type: Executive summary
El Niño and Climate Change
This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics explains the mechanisms of El Niño, its interaction with climate change, and its global socio-economic and environmental impacts. It highlights a 61% chance of an El Niño event emerging between May and July 2026, noting that human-caused warming is likely increasing the frequency and severity of such events, while simultaneously making them harder to predict.
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Document type: Briefing
AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future
This report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the challenges Africa faces in transitioning to a low-carbon future, emphasizing that the region will suffer disproportionately from climate change despite its low contribution to the cause. It argues for a gradual energy transition, the necessity of climate finance, and the implementation of a fair global carbon tax to support sustainable development and resilience.
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Document type: Report
Current Path: Thematic Futures
This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.
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Document type: Report
AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.
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Document type: Research paper
UN Security Council
This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the failure of UN Security Council (UNSC) reform, attributing the deadlock to the entrenched positions of negotiating blocks and the P5 members' desire to maintain the veto power and their associated privileges.
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Document type: Research paper
Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast
This report analyzes global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and land use, providing forecasts through 2063. It highlights the dominance of coal, the climate impact of LNG, and the roles of major emitters like China, the US, and India, while detailing the specific environmental pressures facing Africa, including deforestation and water scarcity.
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Document type: Report
Carbon Market Insights: Volume 1, Issue 1
This briefing from the International Institute for Sustainable Development reviews global and regional carbon pricing trends, focusing on Southeast Asia. It analyzes the impact of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the implementation of Paris Agreement Article 6, and provides updates on carbon pricing developments in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam.
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Document type: Briefing
Overcoming fossil lock-in is pivotal for Asia to buffer against energy shocks
This report by Ember analyzes the vulnerability of Asian economies to energy supply and price shocks resulting from conflict in the Middle East, specifically focusing on the risks of fossil fuel lock-in. It argues that reliance on imported oil and LNG exposes the region to economic instability, inflation, and geopolitical fragmentation, and advocates for an accelerated transition to renewable energy and regional grid integration to ensure long-term energy security.
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Document type: Report
Prospective wind and utility-scale solar pipeline reached almost 5 TW in 2025
The global pipeline for wind and utility-scale solar projects grew by 11% in 2025, reaching 4.9 TW. While China and India lead in construction and prospective capacity, G7 nations show stagnant growth in their pipelines, creating a gap in meeting the COP28 goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
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Document type: Report
International Conversations on Trade and Climate: From the World Trade Organization to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
This research paper by Ieva Baršauskaitė and Antoine Bonnet analyzes the transition of trade-related climate measures from abstract policy debates to practical implementation between 2025 and early 2026. It examines the evolving roles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in managing issues of transparency, interoperability, and development equity, positioning the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) as a critical juncture for consolidating these international efforts.
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Document type: Research paper
Critical minerals as an observatory for evolving forms of trade cooperation
This research paper examines the evolving landscape of critical minerals diplomacy, arguing that current multilateral trade rules are insufficient to balance the economic security needs of consuming nations with the industrialization goals of resource-rich developing countries. The author analyzes the rise of non-binding sectoral partnerships and plurilateral initiatives led by developed nations, warning that these may reinforce power asymmetries. The paper proposes utilizing the World Trade Organization (WTO) or regional groupings as more neutral platforms to establish a rules-based system that supports sustainable sourcing and domestic value addition in producer economies.
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Document type: Research paper
Electronic Commerce at the World Trade Organization
This research paper by Rashid S. Kaukab analyzes the ongoing debates within the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding the governance of electronic commerce ahead of the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14). It examines the tension between the multilateral Work Programme on Electronic Commerce (WPEC) and the plurilateral Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on E-Commerce, specifically focusing on the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions and the digital divide affecting developing countries.
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Document type: Research paper
Litigation Note on Challenging the Financing of Climate-Destructive Conduct
This briefing note analyzes the implications of the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) July 2025 advisory opinion on States' obligations to prevent environmental harm, specifically focusing on the financing of climate-destructive conduct. It outlines how the ICJ's findings can be used in litigation to challenge public and private funding of the fossil fuel sector and to enforce obligations for climate finance in developing nations.
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Document type: Briefing
Leveraging global capital towards clean energy as ASEAN races to the Summit
This policy brief by Ember examines the financing landscape for ASEAN's energy transition, highlighting a significant investment gap and the varying roles of bilateral partners like China, Japan, and the United States. It argues that the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship provides a strategic opportunity to coordinate regional industrial strategies—such as Indonesia's nickel downstreaming and Viet Nam's solar manufacturing—to move the region up the clean energy value chain.
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Document type: Policy brief