Search Climate Insights Directory

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) condemns recent anti-migrant violence in South Africa, arguing that such attacks are orchestrated by political actors to distract from systemic economic failures. The IEJ asserts that poverty, unemployment, and failing public services are the root causes of community anger, and calls for comprehensive social and economic transformation rather than vigilante violence.

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics, in partnership with the Global Offshore Wind Alliance and Ocean Conservancy, examines the potential for offshore wind and marine energy in Africa. It highlights that the continent's 30,500-kilometre coastline could support 6,750 GW of offshore wind, which could significantly exceed current power generation capacity and provide substantial economic and environmental benefits if scaled.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of South Africa's development trajectory to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) against eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. It examines the impacts of demographics, health, education, manufacturing, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, financial flows, and governance on the country's GDP, poverty levels, and carbon emissions. The analysis highlights structural challenges such as extreme inequality, high unemployment, and a history of deindustrialisation, while offering policy recommendations to transition toward an export-led, green economy with improved human capital and governance.

This introductory research paper provides a geographic, political, and demographic overview of Zimbabwe, detailing its landlocked position in Southern Africa, its ethnic composition, and its transition from independence in 1980 through the leadership of Robert Mugabe to Emmerson Mnangagwa.

This fact sheet by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the global economic and energy impacts 100 days into the Iran war, specifically focusing on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It details spikes in oil and gas prices, disruptions to fertiliser and food supply chains, and a subsequent surge in clean energy policy and investment, particularly within Asia.

This report provides conclusions and policy recommendations for Mozambique's development trajectory toward 2043. It argues that the 'Current Path' is non-viable due to governance and structural bottlenecks, and proposes an integrated development approach focusing on governance, agricultural productivity, economic diversification, human capital, and climate resilience.

This introductory research paper provides a socio-economic profile of Mozambique, detailing its transition from a period of rapid post-civil war growth (1993-2015) to a more recent period of economic slowdown and structural challenges. It highlights the country's extreme poverty, high inequality, and the risks and opportunities associated with its extractive industries.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares various development scenarios for Mozambique from 2020 to 2043. It evaluates the impact of sectoral interventions—such as agriculture, governance, and infrastructure—on GDP, poverty rates, and life expectancy, while highlighting a 'Combined scenario' that integrates these efforts to accelerate structural economic transformation.

An introductory report on Malawi's development trajectory, detailing its long-term vision for industrialization, current socio-economic challenges, and severe fiscal pressures exacerbated by climatic shocks and the loss of international funding.

This research paper presents the 'Financial Flows scenario', a model using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to assess the impact of increased aid, foreign direct investment (FDI), and remittances, alongside reduced illicit financial flows (IFFs), on Africa's development indicators through 2043.

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.

The report explores how Africa can 'leapfrog' traditional development stages by adopting decentralised renewable energy, mobile-first digital infrastructure, and AI. It highlights the success of mobile money (e.g., M-Pesa) and the potential for solar mini-grids to close the energy gap. A projected 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario suggests that by 2050, such strategic investments could increase GDP per capita by US$510, reduce extreme poverty by 63 million people, and expand the overall economy by nearly US$1 trillion compared to current trends.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines how frontier technologies—such as drones, the Internet of Things (IoT), and small-scale satellites—enable developing countries, particularly in Africa, to leapfrog traditional, costly infrastructure requirements in agriculture, healthcare, and environmental monitoring.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical drivers of Africa's infrastructure deficit, tracing it from colonial-era extractive designs through post-independence policy failures, macroeconomic crises, and recent trends in urban and railway investment.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between India and Africa, arguing that while India possesses significant comparative advantages based on historical ties and shared developmental goals, there is a persistent gap between its strategic rhetoric and material outcomes. The author identifies structural constraints—including limited fiscal headroom, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and reputational risks—that have caused India to lag behind other global powers like China. The report recommends a coherent Africa strategy focused on low-cost, high-impact initiatives in health, education, and digital finance, utilizing 'anchor states' such as South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt to scale interventions.

This fact sheet by Natural Justice analyzes the proposed revisions to Mozambique's Petroleum Law, which regulates the approval and management of oil and gas projects. While the government aims to attract investment and economic development, the document highlights critical gaps regarding community rights, the risks of legally binding agreements without independent support, and the introduction of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology.

This report analyzes the integration of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) into national systems in Vietnam, Namibia, Suriname, and Mozambique to boost sustainable exports. It emphasizes the need for strong regulatory foundations, continuous support for smallholders to prevent loss of certification, and the use of VSSs to diversify markets and reduce dependence on a few large buyers.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender discrimination within the family sphere in Africa, focusing on child marriage, the unequal distribution of unpaid care and domestic work, and disparities in divorce and inheritance rights.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'educational funnel' in Africa, detailing the significant attrition rates from primary through tertiary education. It highlights a severe educational crisis in sub-Saharan Africa compared to North Africa and other global regions, noting that the region is forecast to miss several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 targets by 2030.

This report analyzes the projected impacts of a specific 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it against a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario envisions a significant increase in agricultural production, reduced food import dependence, and substantial poverty reduction, though it notes that these gains depend on technological adoption and climate factors.