ISS African Futures

This report provides a detailed development forecast for Equatorial Guinea up to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' scenario—based on existing policies and historical patterns—with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis highlights a severe misalignment between the country's status as an upper middle-income nation, driven by oil wealth, and its poor development indicators, including pervasive extreme poverty and low life expectancy.

• Equatorial Guinea is classified as an upper middle-income country due to oil income, yet it exhibits development indicators typical of low or low middle-income countries, with wealth concentrated among a small elite.
• Extreme poverty is widespread and forecast to remain high; in 2019, approximately 97.8% of the population lived below US$5.50 per person per day, a figure expected to decline only to 95% by 2043 under the Current Path.
• The country is one of the most urbanized in Africa, with the urban population forecast to reach 88.7% (2.183 million people) by 2043, making it the second most urban country on the continent.
• Health outcomes are poor compared to global peers; life expectancy was 63.8 years in 2019, and the infant mortality rate of 51.8 deaths per 1,000 live births is significantly higher than other African upper middle-income countries.
• The economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas, leaving it vulnerable to commodity shocks. While oil production is forecast to decline to 16 million barrels by 2043 as reserves deplete, gas production is expected to increase to 23 million barrels (oil equivalent).
• Equatorial Guinea is currently a net carbon absorber due to its large forest area, but it is forecast to become a net carbon contributor starting in 2027.
• The country's governance is characterized as stable but repressive and autocratic, ranking 49th out of 54 African countries on the World Bank Government Effectiveness index in 2019.
• The agriculture sector is small and neglected despite high potential; crop production (0.82 million metric tons in 2019) is below domestic demand (0.94 million metric tons), and this gap is forecast to widen.
• Education quality is low, and the country has one of the lowest expenditures on education as a percentage of GDP in Africa, despite its oil wealth.
• Under the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, GDP per capita in 2043 would be US$49,924, which is nearly 64% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$30,522.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }