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This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for Equatorial Guinea extending to 2043, based on the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the country's trajectory across demographics, economics, poverty, and energy, highlighting a significant misalignment between high GDP per capita driven by oil wealth and poor human development indicators.

The Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) of Equatorial Guinea, published in June 2025, provides a roadmap to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. The strategy compares a 'Base Scenario' of current policies with a 'Mitigation Scenario' aligned with the country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), aiming for a 50% reduction in gross emissions by 2050 compared to 2019 levels. The document details sectoral actions in energy, industrial processes, agriculture and forestry (AFOLU), and waste, while addressing climate adaptation, gender equality, and a just transition.

This report provides a detailed development forecast for Equatorial Guinea up to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' scenario—based on existing policies and historical patterns—with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis highlights a severe misalignment between the country's status as an upper middle-income nation, driven by oil wealth, and its poor development indicators, including pervasive extreme poverty and low life expectancy.