SOUTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report outlines South Africa's transition from apartheid to democracy, its current economic challenges including deindustrialisation and low savings rates, and the state of its mining sector and infrastructure. It details the country's political fragmentation following the 2024 elections and the formation of a Government of National Unity.

• South Africa's economy has suffered from deindustrialisation due to the removal of tariffs and competition from China, leading the World Bank to report a "15-year loss of economic growth momentum" by 2024.
• The mining sector has seen a significant decline in its contribution to the economy, falling from approximately 21% of GDP in 1980 to 6.2% of GDP by 2023, with employment dropping to 477,000 persons.
• Despite the decline, South Africa possesses the world's largest known reserves of manganese ore, chrome ore, and platinum group metals (PGMs), and the second-largest reserves of titanium, vanadium, and zirconium.
• The country faces severe infrastructure constraints, including a decade of "crippling electricity shortages" that began to ease in 2024 and an impending water-shortage crisis driven by population growth and poor maintenance in eThekwini and Gauteng.
• South Africa's national savings rate as a percentage of GDP is approximately eight percentage points lower than the global average for upper-middle-income countries (UMICs).
• The political landscape has become increasingly fragmented, with the ANC's support falling to 40% in May 2024, leading to the formation of a "Government of National Unity".

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). SOUTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZA&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. SOUTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZA&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=SOUTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZA&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026south, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{SOUTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZA&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }