Search Climate Insights Directory

The study finds that anthropogenic climate change approximately tripled the probability of the April 2026 heatwave in northwestern India and Pakistan, making it about 1°C hotter than it would have been in a preindustrial climate. Analysis indicates that extreme heat is occurring earlier in the season, with the likelihood and intensity of April events increasing more rapidly than those in May. This trend extends the period of dangerous heat exposure for hundreds of millions of people, compounding risks to health, agriculture, and the economy. The report also highlights systemic vulnerabilities, noting that heatwaves are not officially declared disasters in India and Pakistan, which limits access to relief funding.

The MigrationRhythms project conducted a face-to-face survey in Hanoi, Karachi, Manila, and Mumbai to investigate the relationship between migration and upward social mobility among the lower-to-middle-middle class. The documentation describes a probability-based sampling method using random walks to identify 500 respondents per city. It details the use of SurveyCTO CAPI software for data collection, the development of a structured questionnaire covering socio-economic status and multi-generational migration histories, and the rigorous data cleaning and anonymization processes required to produce an open-access dataset for publication on Zenodo.

The document examines how residents of Karachi define 'middleclassness' and the factors contributing to upward social mobility. Based on a 2023 survey of 508 residents and 25 family interviews, it finds that middle-class identity is strongly associated with private education and motorbike ownership. While most current residents were born in Karachi, generational data reveals a high history of in-migration, including rural-to-urban movement and migration following the 1947 Partition. The findings suggest that becoming middle class is perceived as a difficult struggle requiring the mobilization of multiple factors, including education, hard work, and remittances from family abroad.

The document explores how residents of Metro Manila define being and becoming middle class, highlighting a diversity of markers including employment, consumption, and values. It examines the intersection of social mobility and migration, noting that Metro Manila serves as a hub for internal migrants and a transit point for international migration, with remittances and family support networks playing key roles in achieving middle-class status.

The Zu Peshawar project replaced an unreliable, private transport patchwork with a state-of-the-art Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system designed for inclusivity. By incorporating gender-sensitive features and accessibility tools, the system significantly increased female ridership from 2% to 20% and provided step-free access for wheelchair users. The project also included a Bus Industry Restructuring Program to transition former operators into formal employment with better conditions. Utilizing diesel-hybrid buses to reduce emissions, the system serves an average of 250,000 passengers daily and has inspired other Pakistani cities to upgrade their transit infrastructure.

The analysis examines how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks like green spaces and water bodies increases urban heat risks in major cities across the Critical 9 countries. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 scenario, the report details specific land-use losses in cities such as Shanghai, Karachi, and Dhaka, linking these changes to increased vulnerability to dangerous heat days (above 35°C) and rising energy demands for active cooling.

The briefing analyzes the intersection of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, deteriorating governance, and nuclear-armed geopolitical tensions in South Asia. It argues that these converging risks create non-linear dynamics that could lead to a systemic collapse or 'regime shift,' posing significant spillover risks to the global international system.

The report outlines a variety of passive and active cooling strategies for urban environments, ranging from nature-based solutions like tree planting and green roofs to technical interventions such as cool pavements and district cooling systems. It emphasizes the importance of integrated urban planning, the implementation of Heat Action Plans to protect vulnerable populations, and the use of diverse policy incentives and business models to scale these solutions.

The report examines the growing global need for cooling, driven by urbanization and rising incomes, particularly in developing countries. It warns that a surge in air conditioning (AC) use could lead to massive increases in electricity demand and urban heat island effects. The document also details the critical role of cold chains in reducing food loss and ensuring vaccine viability, while emphasizing the need to 'leapfrog' high-emission cooling technologies to avoid severe environmental impacts.

The document details the implementation of South Asia's first Heat Action Plan in Ahmedabad, which has since influenced 17 cities and 11 Indian states. It outlines the multifaceted threats of heat waves—including health risks, economic productivity loss, and infrastructure damage—and provides a framework for preparedness through early warning systems, public awareness, medical capacity building, and long-term urban adaptation like 'cool roofs'. The guide emphasizes the roles of political will, inter-agency partnerships, and scientific evidence in successfully scaling these interventions.

The report analyzes ten CDKN initiatives in India, Indonesia, Nepal, and Pakistan to identify effective design pathways for scaling climate compatible development. It distinguishes between research-led, hybrid, and action-led pathways, concluding that longer-term, action-oriented approaches are most successful in embedding new practices across local, provincial, and national scales. The authors propose several design principles, including early action, adaptive management, and strategic knowledge brokering, to navigate the complex multi-level governance required for climate resilience and low-carbon transitions.

Pakistan faces a severe water security crisis driven by its reliance on transboundary freshwater sources, climate change, and poor management, with predictions of absolute water scarcity by 2025. This insecurity manifests as declining agricultural productivity, public health crises due to contaminated water, and social unrest in cities like Karachi. The document highlights that these vulnerabilities, alongside tensions with India over the Indus Basin Water Treaty, create fertile ground for insurgency and instability, thereby increasing risks to U.S. foreign policy and security interests. It recommends that the U.S. provide technical support for groundwater monitoring, facilitate water pricing systems, and promote soft engineering solutions like wetlands.

The document provides a comprehensive review of Pakistan's vulnerability to climate change, focusing on the gap between national policy goals and actual implementation. It identifies critical risks to water, food, and energy security, and notes that while the government has established a National Climate Change Policy and an implementation framework, progress is hindered by weak governance, limited funding, and a lack of capacity at the provincial level following the devolution of responsibilities under the 18th Amendment. The report also catalogues 26 discrete adaptation projects, noting a heavy focus on research and water management, while highlighting significant gaps in health, forestry, and gender-sensitive adaptation.

The document argues that the current trajectory of urbanization in the Global South—characterized by rapid population growth outpacing economic growth and the 'urbanization of poverty'—risks locking cities into unsustainable patterns. It proposes a new categorization of cities based on economic productivity and population growth, focusing on 'struggling' and 'emerging' cities. The authors contend that providing equitable access to core services (housing, water, sanitation, energy, and transport) is the essential entry point for broader transformative urban change. Using case studies from Medellín and Surat, the paper illustrates how solving a 'seminal problem' can trigger a virtuous cycle of improvement across governance, finance, and planning, ultimately enhancing the quality of life for all residents.

The report examines the gap between high compliance in fish processing plants and low compliance in harvesting and pre-processing stages in Pakistan. While market pressures drive processors to adopt HACCP standards to maintain EU exports, the harvesting stage suffers from systemic degradation, over-fishing, and a cycle of indebtedness among fisherfolk. The document argues that institutional failure and the perception of fisheries as an open-access resource have led to the use of destructive fishing gear and the depletion of stocks, necessitating a sustainable fisheries policy that integrates ecosystem management with the economic uplift of coastal communities.

The document examines the impact of international environmental standards on Pakistan's export sectors, arguing that while compliance can be costly, it often leads to efficiency gains and market access. It analyzes 'win-win' scenarios where cleaner production reduces costs, and 'net-win' scenarios where environmental and health benefits outweigh mitigation costs. The study highlights the leather sector's success with in-plant modifications and the challenges facing the textile sector due to high end-of-pipe treatment costs. It concludes that Pakistan lacks the institutional capacity to fully leverage WTO agreements (TBT and SPS) to manage these standards.

The research examines the impact of international environmental standards on Pakistan's leather and textile exports. It identifies 'win-win' scenarios where in-plant cleaner production measures reduce costs and pollution, but notes that expensive end-of-pipe treatments often lead to 'net-loss' for SMEs. The paper highlights a gap between formal ISO certifications and actual compliance, and argues that Pakistan must build institutional capacity to leverage WTO agreements (TBT and SPS) to maintain market access as voluntary standards increase.

The report finds that while cloth and leather exports in Pakistan generate significant pollution—including toxic chemical runoff and carcinogenic waste—the costs of implementing cleaner production technologies are modest at both the macro and micro levels. For cloth production, mitigation could reduce pollution loads by up to 91%, with costs representing only 0.0011% of the 1996-97 GNP. For leather tanning, mitigation could reduce pollution by 66%, with net costs (after chromium recovery) amounting to 0.0025% of GNP. The authors argue that meeting international environmental standards is a 'win-win' that ensures market access and improves public health, urging the Pakistani government to proactively provide information on global standards to exporters.

The report identifies a significant gap between the environmental focus of the Sarhad Province Conservation Strategy (SPCS) and the immediate social priorities of local stakeholders, such as poverty and food security. It highlights critical deficiencies in data collection, noting a lack of systematic monitoring for water and air quality and the absence of provincial macroeconomic data. The author argues that the current centralized data system is inadequate for sustainable development monitoring and recommends a phased, decentralized approach using simple, action-oriented indicators to guide implementation.

The transport sector in Pakistan is projected to see a 128% increase in greenhouse gas emissions between 2012 and 2030, rising from 35.4 MtCO2e to 80.7 MtCO2e. The document identifies several mitigation strategies, prioritizing efficiency norms for passenger vehicles, road-to-rail transfers, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and improved car maintenance. Efficiency norms for passenger cars, taxis, and vans are identified as the highest priority, with a potential reduction of 7.45 MtCO2e by 2030. Shifting freight and passengers from road to rail is another key strategy, though rail's share of freight has dropped to under 1%, with a national target of 20%. The expansion of BRT systems in cities like Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi-Islamabad, and Multan is also highlighted as a means to improve urban mobility and reduce emissions.