Converging Risks in South Asia: Is a Disruptive Transition on the Horizon?

The briefing analyzes the intersection of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, deteriorating governance, and nuclear-armed geopolitical tensions in South Asia. It argues that these converging risks create non-linear dynamics that could lead to a systemic collapse or 'regime shift,' posing significant spillover risks to the global international system.

• South Asia faces severe earth systems risks, with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal ranked among the top ten countries globally for climate-magnified events between 1999 and 2018, and India ranked 5th in the 2020 Climate Risk Index.
• Climate change is creating existential threats and systemic instability, specifically threatening the Maldives with submersion by the end of the century and causing an acute water crisis in Pakistan affecting the Indus river delta and Karachi.
• Economic vulnerabilities are acute across the region: India faced its first projected negative GDP growth since 1961 due to a structural slowdown and the pandemic, while Bangladesh's garment industry, which represents 80% of its exports, faces severe contraction.
• Governance is declining due to the rise of majoritarian ethnic nationalism and the erosion of democratic institutions in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
• Inter-state conflict risk is escalating as South Asia becomes a theater for frictions between a Beijing-Islamabad alliance and New Delhi, characterized by the first military skirmishes with casualties between India and China in four decades.
• The stability of nuclear deterrence in the region is degrading as India's strategic restraint has weakened and Pakistan has adopted tactical nuclear weapons.
• The interaction of these risks may trigger a 'regime shift'—a disruptive transition to a different state of security—which would create global spillover effects due to deep international interdependence.

APA

Shidore, S. (2020). Converging Risks in South Asia: Is a Disruptive Transition on the Horizon? The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Converging-Risks-in-South-Asia_Is-a-Disruptive-Transition-on-the-Horizon_BRIEFER-9_2020_7_BRIEFER-9_2020_7-2.pdf

Chicago

Shidore, Sarang. Converging Risks in South Asia: Is a Disruptive Transition on the Horizon? The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Converging-Risks-in-South-Asia_Is-a-Disruptive-Transition-on-the-Horizon_BRIEFER-9_2020_7_BRIEFER-9_2020_7-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shidore |first1=Sarang |title=Converging Risks in South Asia: Is a Disruptive Transition on the Horizon? |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=July 2020 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Converging-Risks-in-South-Asia_Is-a-Disruptive-Transition-on-the-Horizon_BRIEFER-9_2020_7_BRIEFER-9_2020_7-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shidore2020converging, author = {Shidore, Sarang}, title = {{Converging Risks in South Asia: Is a Disruptive Transition on the Horizon?}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Converging-Risks-in-South-Asia_Is-a-Disruptive-Transition-on-the-Horizon_BRIEFER-9_2020_7_BRIEFER-9_2020_7-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }