Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries

The analysis examines how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks like green spaces and water bodies increases urban heat risks in major cities across the Critical 9 countries. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 scenario, the report details specific land-use losses in cities such as Shanghai, Karachi, and Dhaka, linking these changes to increased vulnerability to dangerous heat days (above 35°C) and rising energy demands for active cooling.

• Shanghai experienced the largest increase in built-up area among the analyzed cities in the Critical 9 countries between 2015 and 2019, adding 8.96 square kilometers. This growth occurred alongside losses of 3.48 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation and 3.38 square kilometers of open forest.
• In Karachi, while the built-up area grew by 6.63 square kilometers between 2015 and 2019, there was a simultaneous and much larger increase in land used for cultivating produce, which grew by 213 square kilometers, potentially improving food security.
• Dhaka's urban expansion between 2015 and 2019 added 0.93 square kilometers of built-up area, displacing 0.44 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.27 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, and 0.1 square kilometers of herbaceous wetland.
• Rapid urbanization in São Paulo has increased the population of informal settlements (favelas), which are often built to low standards on flood-prone or marshy land, leaving residents highly vulnerable to projected dangerous heat days (above 35°C) between September and November.
• Mumbai's migration-driven growth has expanded informal settlements, such as the Dharavi slum with over 1 million residents, who face extreme vulnerability with projections of at least 15 days of dangerous heat per month from March to June.
• Jakarta's increase of 0.87 square kilometers of built-up area between 2015 and 2019 included the removal of 0.14 square kilometers of open forest, which is expected to exacerbate the Urban Heat Island Effect and increase energy demand for cooling.

APA

Sustainable Energy for All (2022). Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries. https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis

Chicago

Sustainable Energy for All. Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries. 2022. https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Sustainable Energy for All |title=Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries |date=17 May 2022 |url=https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sustainableenergyforall2022chilling, author = {{Sustainable Energy for All}}, title = {{Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries}}, institution = {Sustainable Energy for All}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }