Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries

This report analyzes land-use changes between 2015 and 2019 in the most populous cities of the 'Critical 9' countries to assess the impact of urbanization on the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE) and cooling needs. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 emissions scenario, the analysis details how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks—such as forests, wetlands, and vegetation—increases heat risks for vulnerable populations.

• Shanghai, China, experienced the largest increase in built-up area among the analyzed cities in the Critical 9 countries between 2015 and 2019, adding 8.96 square kilometers. This growth occurred at the expense of 3.48 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 3.38 square kilometers of open forest, 1.32 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.78 square kilometers of shrubs, and smaller amounts of herbaceous wetland and open forest with evergreen broad leaf.
• Karachi, Pakistan, saw a built-up area increase of 6.63 square kilometers between 2015 and 2019, primarily replacing 3.6 square kilometers of bare or sparse vegetation, 1.82 square kilometers of shrubs, 0.74 square kilometers of open forest, 0.31 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, and 0.18 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation. Conversely, land used for cultivating produce grew by 213 square kilometers during this period.
• In Mumbai, India, the expansion of built-up area by 0.9 square kilometers between 2015 and 2019 contributed to the growth of informal settlements, such as the Dharavi slum, which houses over 1 million people. These populations face high vulnerability to heat, with projections of at least 15 days per month of dangerous heat (above 35C) between March and June annually.
• São Paulo, Brazil, increased its built-up area by 2.27 square kilometers from 2015 to 2019, reducing herbaceous vegetation by 1.1 square kilometers and open forest by 1.03 square kilometers. This urbanization has increased the number of residents in low-standard informal settlements (favelas), who are projected to face four days per month of dangerous heat between September and November annually.
• Dhaka, Bangladesh, added 0.93 square kilometers of built-up area between 2015 and 2019, replacing 0.44 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.27 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, and 0.1 square kilometers of herbaceous wetland. The city is expected to experience a significant number of dangerous heat days over 35C between March and June annually.
• Jakarta, Indonesia, increased its built-up area by 0.87 square kilometers between 2015 and 2019, removing 0.25 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.19 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.14 square kilometers of open forest, and 0.1 square kilometers each of water bodies and bare/sparse vegetation.
• Omdurman, Sudan, gained 0.48 square kilometers of built-up area between 2015 and 2019, replacing bare or sparse vegetation. The Omdurman-Khartoum region is projected to experience over 20 days per month of dangerous heat between April and October annually from 2020 to 2039.
• Lagos, Nigeria, and Maputo, Mozambique, both saw modest increases in built-up areas between 2015 and 2019 (0.43 square kilometers and 0.3 square kilometers, respectively). Lagos is expected to see an increase in days with dangerous heat (above 35C), while Maputo is expected to see over four days of dangerous heat annually between September and February.
• The report concludes that the loss of natural heat sinks, such as green spaces and water, multiplies the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE) and increases risks for vulnerable populations. It suggests that urban greening, passive cooling measures, and heat-action planning (such as public cooling centres) are essential to mitigate these risks and reduce reliance on inefficient active cooling technologies.

APA

Sustainable Energy for All (2022). Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries. https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis

Chicago

Sustainable Energy for All. Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries. 2022. https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Sustainable Energy for All |title=Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries |date=17 May 2022 |url=https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sustainableenergyforall2022chilling, author = {{Sustainable Energy for All}}, title = {{Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries}}, institution = {Sustainable Energy for All}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://www.seforall.org/data-stories/urban-land-use-and-heat-analysis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }