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Africa: Key issues to track in 2022
The briefing outlines critical areas of focus for Africa in 2022, including democratic transitions in eighteen countries, the management of military coups in states like Mali and Sudan, and the fight against terrorism in regions such as the Lake Chad Basin. It highlights Africa's priorities for COP27, specifically the need for climate finance, technology transfer, and a just transition that supports industrialisation. Additionally, it examines the evolution of China-Africa relations following the FOCAC Ministerial Meeting and the potential impact of China's debt on Kenya's elections.
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Document type: Briefing
Understanding the role of development finance institutions in promoting development
The report examines the alignment between DFI funding and national strategic priorities in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya. It finds that while national plans are generally aligned with SDGs, DFIs often operate based on internal strategies rather than national plans. The analysis identifies specific sectoral gaps where DFIs could provide financial additionality, particularly in ICT and healthcare, and proposes a four-step framework for DFIs to better align investments with country-level strategic sectors.
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Document type: Report
Seizing the Violence of the Ethiopian Transition: Political Dialogue for Survivors Politics
The paper analyzes the root causes of political violence in Ethiopia, attributing it to an institutional crisis within the EPRDF and a historical 'cult of violence'. It proposes a transition from a 'politics of victimhood' to a 'survivors' political project' inspired by Mahmood Mamdani's theories and the hagiography of Saint Krəstos Śämra. The author suggests that peace-building requires a multi-track political dialogue, a sovereign apology from the state for historical violence, and the transformation of enemies into political adversaries to build a multicultural state.
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Document type: Research paper
Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of Forest Restoration in the Brantas River Basin, Indonesia
The SAVi assessment of forest restoration in the Brantas River basin demonstrates that nature-based infrastructure is more cost-effective than building a reservoir for water storage. Over 20 years, the interventions are projected to generate net societal benefits between USD 104.34 million and USD 131.59 million through avoided flood and erosion damages, carbon storage, and improved water quality.
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Document type: Report
Engaging Decision-Makers in Moving Beyond GDP and Toward Wealth
The document outlines the conceptual and practical framework for moving beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP) toward comprehensive/inclusive wealth (C/IW) measurement. It argues that GDP is biased toward short-term market growth and ignores critical determinants of well-being, such as environmental degradation and social capital. C/IW is presented as a portfolio of human, natural, social, produced, and financial capital that allows countries to determine if their development is sustainable. The briefing provides a three-step implementation strategy: informing decision-makers through tailored briefings, compiling official estimates via national statistical offices, and integrating these measures into ex ante and ex post policy analysis.
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Document type: Briefing
Cyber diplomacy and Africa’s digital development
The report argues that African states must transition from being 'junior partners' in global cyber diplomacy to active participants by developing common continental positions and leveraging their demographic position as a future technology market. It highlights the risks of 'norm colonisation' from cyber superpowers and the vulnerability of fragile democracies to information warfare. The author recommends that the African Union recruit 'cyber champions' from digitally mature states and uncouple trade negotiations from cyber diplomacy to ensure a unified approach to digital governance and security.
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Document type: Report
Race to sustainability?
The report analyzes Egypt's path to 2050, highlighting critical risks from rapid population growth (projected to reach 150 million) and severe water shortages expected by 2025. It identifies systemic economic issues, including a large informal sector and high youth unemployment, alongside health crises driven by non-communicable diseases. Through the International Futures (IFs) platform, the authors simulate seven sectoral interventions—covering demography, economy, governance, energy, health, education, and agriculture—concluding that a combined policy push could nearly double the economy's size and significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2050.
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Document type: Report
Shifting power through climate research
The document argues that colonial legacies continue to shape climate impacts and the way research is conducted, often disadvantaging the Global South. It proposes a framework for shifting power across three stages of the scientific process: project design, implementation, and dissemination. Key recommendations include adopting co-productive methodologies, ensuring equitable funding and hiring practices, practicing active reflexivity in the field, and diversifying publication channels to include regional and open-access journals. The authors emphasize that while individual researchers can take action, systemic change is required from institutions and funders to dismantle structural barriers.
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Document type: Briefing
Cutting through the aid reporting chaos
The report identifies a lack of coherence between the coding systems used for procurement (such as UNSPSC and CPV) and those used for reporting (such as OECD DAC CRS and IATI). This fragmentation creates barriers for innovators attempting to enter the humanitarian and development markets, as it is difficult to track what products are being procured and how they are reported. The authors recommend harmonizing reporting formats, clarifying stakeholder responsibilities, and developing user-friendly platforms to match solution providers with donor needs.
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Document type: Report
FACTSHEET EAST AFRICA
The document details how East Africa has experienced warming exceeding the global average, leading to increased drought frequency, glacier loss, and significant economic losses. Future projections indicate severe risks to human health, food security, and biodiversity, particularly if warming exceeds 1.5°C. It emphasizes the need for transformative adaptation, increased climate finance, and improved climate services to build regional resilience.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Advancing gender-equitable and socially-inclusive climate-resilient development
The Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) is implementing a five-year programme (2022–27) focused on accelerating locally-led, equitable, and ecosystem-based climate action. The initiative targets disadvantaged groups, including women, Indigenous Peoples, and migrants, across Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. CDKN's strategy centers on three priority areas: integrating gender equality and social inclusion into climate policies, enabling inclusive finance for local action, and implementing effective ecosystem-based adaptation. The approach emphasizes 'knowledge-into-action' by combining local, Indigenous, and scientific knowledge to strengthen Southern leadership and institutional capacity.
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Document type: Fact sheet
THE ETHIOPIA INDUSTRIAL PARKS JOBS PROTECTION FACILITY Report 2022
The Ethiopia Industrial Parks Jobs Protection Facility provided US$ 4,645,607 in wage and innovation incentives to 24 factories in Ethiopia's industrial parks, benefiting 31,511 workers. The facility successfully enabled 92% of participating factories to retain at least 80% of their pre-Facility workforce and helped 76% avoid revenue declines during the pandemic. Beyond job retention, the facility spurred innovation in PPE production and human capital development, while creating unintended positive outcomes such as improved financial inclusion for workers through the formalization of payroll via bank accounts and streamlined internal cash reconciliation processes for factories.
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Document type: Report
Impact Report 2022
FSD Africa's 2022 Impact Report details the agency's efforts to deepen African capital markets and transition toward a green economy. Key achievements include mobilising £1.9 billion in long-term capital, supporting the issuance of pioneering gender bonds in Tanzania and Morocco, and expanding green finance initiatives. The report highlights the agency's 'green strategy' target to have 70% of its portfolio be green by 2025, alongside specific interventions in geothermal risk transfer, carbon markets, and COVID-19 emergency job protection in Ethiopia.
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Document type: Report
FSD Africa Impact Report
FSD Africa's 2022 Impact Report highlights the organization's shift toward green financing, with a goal of 70% of its portfolio being green. Key achievements include facilitating green bonds in 20 African countries, investing $0.25bn via the African Local Currency Bond Fund to support renewable energy, and launching the African Natural Capital Alliance to manage nature-related financial risks. The organization has increased its green financing commitment from £23 million in 2020 to approximately £52 million in 2022, with a target of over £122 million by 2025.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Nature as Patronage? Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss
The study examines the relationship between political institutions, support coalition identity, and deforestation. Using satellite data and expert-coded regime data, the author finds that while democratization is generally associated with forest loss, this effect is moderated by the support base: democracies with rural supporters are associated with reforestation. Conversely, regimes relying on urban supporters are linked to higher-than-average forest loss globally and in the tropics, potentially reflecting the consumption demands of urbanizing populations.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021
The report analyzes global conflict dynamics, noting that state-based conflicts reached historic highs in 2019 and 2020. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving conflict numbers and the rise of non-state conflicts, particularly in the Americas and Africa. The document also tracks the declining success rates of non-violent resistance campaigns and the prevalence of conflict-related sexual violence, which is most frequently recorded in Africa.
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Document type: Research paper
Workshop Report Towards an African Adaptation Finance Agenda for COP27
The report outlines key messages from a community of practice workshop in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, focused on scaling and improving the effectiveness of adaptation finance in Africa. It provides specific recommendations for the public sector, private sector, and strategic partnerships to support the African climate agenda ahead of COP27.
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Document type: Report
Ensuring the success of the AfCFTA - Issues for urgent consideration
The AfCFTA has the potential to generate USD 3.4 trillion in GDP and lift over 100 million people out of poverty by 2040, with primary gains expected in manufacturing and services. However, significant disparities in factor markets—including labour skills, technology adoption, and financial capacity—exist across the continent, with Eastern and Southern Africa generally possessing higher capacities than Central and Western Africa. The document highlights risks associated with heavy reliance on non-African financing, such as the EU-funded Africa Trade Observatory, and urges member states to leverage domestic capital markets and sovereign wealth funds. It further emphasizes that political stability and the empowerment of regional bodies are essential to protect private sector investment in cross-border infrastructure, which the World Bank estimates requires USD 47.6 billion annually.
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Document type: Briefing
Dangerous militarisation makes peace elusive
The document examines the 'militarisation of politics' in Africa, using the conflict in Ethiopia between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a primary example. It defines militarisation as the tendency to settle political disputes militarily and notes that this trend is often a legacy of colonial rule. The author highlights a history of military coups and civil wars across the continent, noting that by 2017, Africa had experienced 200 successful and failed coups. While the African Union (AU) has frameworks like the Lomé Declaration and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance to prevent unconstitutional changes of government, the document argues that inconsistent implementation—such as the AU's failure to suspend Chad after the seizure of power by the Transnational Military Council—undermines these efforts. Additionally, the text notes a 17% increase in African military spending over the last decade, totaling $41.2 billion in 2019. In the Horn of Africa, the conflict involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan risks regional destabilisation and the undoing of previous peace agreements.
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Document type: Research paper
Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of Nature-Based Coastal Protection in the Netherlands
The report evaluates the Hondsbossche Dunes, a 7-kilometre nature-based coastal protection project in the Netherlands, using the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) method. The assessment compares this nature-based solution against a conventional grey infrastructure alternative, specifically a sheet pile wall, across various flood scenarios.
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Document type: Report