Nature as Patronage? Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss

The study examines the relationship between political institutions, support coalition identity, and deforestation. Using satellite data and expert-coded regime data, the author finds that while democratization is generally associated with forest loss, this effect is moderated by the support base: democracies with rural supporters are associated with reforestation. Conversely, regimes relying on urban supporters are linked to higher-than-average forest loss globally and in the tropics, potentially reflecting the consumption demands of urbanizing populations.

• Democratization is generally associated with higher rates of forest loss, but this effect is heterogeneously moderated by the identity of the regime's support coalition.
• Democratic regimes that rely on rural supporters are associated with an average increase in forest cover globally, indicating reforestation.
• Regimes that rely on support from urban groups are associated with higher-than-average forest loss across both global forests and tropical forests.
• Neither democratization nor its interaction with various support coalitions had a statistically significant effect on forest change within the tropical forest sub-sample.
• Regimes dominated by urban business elites are associated with higher-than-average forest loss, with some evidence suggesting a sequential effect where deforestation peaks a few years after these elites enter the coalition.
• Economic size (per capita GDP) is positively associated with forest regrowth globally, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, although economic growth is associated with deforestation in tropical forests.
• The geographical location of the support coalition (rural vs. urban) is a less salient predictor of forest cover change than the identity of the support groups themselves.

APA

Koning, J. B. J. (2022). Nature as Patronage? Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f42acbe-ff1a-4eba-899d-7c0805fc6d55/Nature as Patronage Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Koning, Jens Bertil Johnsen. Nature as Patronage? Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f42acbe-ff1a-4eba-899d-7c0805fc6d55/Nature as Patronage Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Koning |first1=Jens Bertil Johnsen |title=Nature as Patronage? Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f42acbe-ff1a-4eba-899d-7c0805fc6d55/Nature as Patronage Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{koning2022nature, author = {Koning, Jens Bertil Johnsen}, title = {{Nature as Patronage? Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f42acbe-ff1a-4eba-899d-7c0805fc6d55/Nature as Patronage Exploring The Effects of Democratization and Support Coalition Identity on Forest Loss.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }