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The study examines the relationship between political institutions, support coalition identity, and deforestation. Using satellite data and expert-coded regime data, the author finds that while democratization is generally associated with forest loss, this effect is moderated by the support base: democracies with rural supporters are associated with reforestation. Conversely, regimes relying on urban supporters are linked to higher-than-average forest loss globally and in the tropics, potentially reflecting the consumption demands of urbanizing populations.

The paper examines the relationship between internal armed conflict and horizontal inequality, using regional disparities in human development as a proxy. The authors find that high-intensity, long-duration conflicts (over 1,000 battle deaths and lasting more than 5 years) are associated with significantly higher levels of horizontal inequality in infant mortality, wealth, and education. This inequality persists for many years, with declines only appearing 10-15 years after conflict termination. Sub-national analysis suggests that regions directly exposed to fighting suffer more, further widening the gap. Preliminary findings indicate that neither peace agreements nor UN peacekeeping operations significantly mitigate these increases in horizontal inequality.

The study finds that while agricultural prices drive deforestation, conservation policies implemented in 2004 and 2008 significantly curbed forest loss. Counterfactual simulations estimate that these policies avoided approximately 73,000 square kilometers of deforestation from 2005 to 2009, equivalent to 2.7 billion tonnes of stored carbon dioxide. The analysis indicates that the deforestation slowdown did not result in a major downturn for the local agricultural sector or municipal GDP per capita.