Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies?

This research paper evaluates the relative contributions of agricultural output prices and conservation policies to the reduction of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon between 2002 and 2009. Using a panel of 380 municipalities, the authors find that while agricultural prices drive deforestation, conservation policies implemented in 2004 and 2008 significantly curbed forest clearings without negatively impacting local GDP or population trends.

• Conservation policies introduced in 2004 and 2008 were effective in reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Counterfactual simulations estimate that these policies avoided approximately 73,000 square kilometers of forest clearings between 2005 and 2009, which represents 56% of the deforestation that would have occurred in their absence.
• The avoided deforestation of 73,000 square kilometers is equivalent to preserving 2.7 billion tonnes of stored carbon dioxide, with an estimated monetary value of USD 13.2 billion based on a price of 5 USD/tCO2.
• Agricultural output prices are significant drivers of deforestation. Specifically, there is a positive and robust relationship between crop prices (particularly soybean, rice, and corn) and deforestation, with farmers making land-use decisions based on prices observed before the sowing period.
• Cattle prices exhibit a complex dynamic relationship with deforestation: lagged prices are positively associated with deforestation (likely due to building breeding stocks), while current prices are negatively associated (likely due to increased slaughter rates reducing land pressure).
• The 2004 policy turning point was marked by the launch of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), which integrated government institutions and introduced the Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation (DETER) to enable quicker law enforcement by Ibama.
• The 2008 policy turning point involved targeting 'priority municipalities' with intense deforestation for more rigorous monitoring, the passing of Presidential Decree 6,514 to stabilize the penalization of environmental infractions, and National Monetary Council Resolution 3,545, which conditioned rural credit on environmental compliance.
• Conservation policies did not result in a trade-off with local economic development; the study found no negative impact on population trends or municipal GDP per capita, and no major downturn in the agricultural sector.

APA

Assunção, J., Gandour, C., & Rocha, R. (2015). Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Technical-Paper.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Clarissa Gandour, and Rudi Rocha. Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? Climate Policy Initiative, 2015. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Technical-Paper.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Gandour |first2=Clarissa |last3=Rocha |first3=Rudi |title=Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=March 2015 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Technical-Paper.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2015deforestation, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Gandour, Clarissa and Rocha, Rudi}, title = {{Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Technical-Paper.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }