The conflict – inequality trap? How internal armed conflict affects horizontal inequality

The paper examines the relationship between internal armed conflict and horizontal inequality, using regional disparities in human development as a proxy. The authors find that high-intensity, long-duration conflicts (over 1,000 battle deaths and lasting more than 5 years) are associated with significantly higher levels of horizontal inequality in infant mortality, wealth, and education. This inequality persists for many years, with declines only appearing 10-15 years after conflict termination. Sub-national analysis suggests that regions directly exposed to fighting suffer more, further widening the gap. Preliminary findings indicate that neither peace agreements nor UN peacekeeping operations significantly mitigate these increases in horizontal inequality.

• High-intensity, long-duration conflicts—defined as those with more than 1,000 battle deaths lasting over five years—are associated with substantially higher levels of horizontal inequality in the post-conflict phase.
• Low-intensity and short-lived conflicts (lasting 1-5 years) do not show a systematic link to increased levels of horizontal inequality.
• The increase in horizontal inequality following high-intensity conflict is observed across multiple human development indicators, including infant mortality, wealth, and education, though not significantly for access to electricity.
• Increases in horizontal inequality are enduring; declines in infant mortality inequality are only statistically significant in the late post-conflict stage, 10-15 years after the conflict ends.
• Sub-national analysis indicates that regions directly exposed to armed conflict experience higher infant mortality rates than regions not affected, suggesting that localized destruction and disruption drive horizontal inequality.
• Preliminary evidence suggests that peace agreements, including comprehensive peace accords, do not effectively alleviate horizontal inequality in the late post-conflict phase.
• The presence of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs), regardless of mandate size or budget, does not show a discernible mediating effect on reducing post-conflict horizontal inequality.

APA

Dahlum, S., Nygård, H. M., Rustad, S. A., & Østby, G. (2019). The conflict – inequality trap? How internal armed conflict affects horizontal inequality. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d6348de7-ee47-440b-89e9-d794d051622d/The Conflict-Inequality Trap How Internal Armed Conflict Affects Horizontal Inequality.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Dahlum, Sirianne, Høvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Aas Rustad, and Gudrun Østby. The conflict – inequality trap? How internal armed conflict affects horizontal inequality. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2019. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d6348de7-ee47-440b-89e9-d794d051622d/The Conflict-Inequality Trap How Internal Armed Conflict Affects Horizontal Inequality.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dahlum |first1=Sirianne |last2=Nygård |first2=Høvard Mokleiv |last3=Rustad |first3=Siri Aas |last4=Østby |first4=Gudrun |title=The conflict – inequality trap? How internal armed conflict affects horizontal inequality |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=12 December 2019 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d6348de7-ee47-440b-89e9-d794d051622d/The Conflict-Inequality Trap How Internal Armed Conflict Affects Horizontal Inequality.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dahlum2019conflict, author = {Dahlum, Sirianne and Nygård, Høvard Mokleiv and Rustad, Siri Aas and Østby, Gudrun}, title = {{The conflict – inequality trap? How internal armed conflict affects horizontal inequality}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2019}, month = dec, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d6348de7-ee47-440b-89e9-d794d051622d/The Conflict-Inequality Trap How Internal Armed Conflict Affects Horizontal Inequality.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }