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The document analyzes the drivers of protests against pandemic restrictions across Europe, Germany, and the US. It finds that protest intensity is influenced by the perceived asynchronicity between mortality rates and policy stringency, levels of trust in government, and political polarization. In Europe, higher trust and lower civil liberties correlate with fewer protests. In Germany, districts with lower support for mainstream parties saw more protests, particularly in the East. In the US, protest intensity was higher in Democratic-governed states, driven both by stricter measures and political polarization.

The paper examines the relationship between internal armed conflict and horizontal inequality, using regional disparities in human development as a proxy. The authors find that high-intensity, long-duration conflicts (over 1,000 battle deaths and lasting more than 5 years) are associated with significantly higher levels of horizontal inequality in infant mortality, wealth, and education. This inequality persists for many years, with declines only appearing 10-15 years after conflict termination. Sub-national analysis suggests that regions directly exposed to fighting suffer more, further widening the gap. Preliminary findings indicate that neither peace agreements nor UN peacekeeping operations significantly mitigate these increases in horizontal inequality.

The study finds a positive correlation between education and protest activity across 42 African countries, suggesting that education increases both the motivation to challenge authoritarian regimes and the organizational capacity to stage protests.

The document argues that government behavior, rather than just structural factors, determines the risk of civil conflict. It distinguishes between 'sins of omission'—the failure to provide political goods and protect property rights—and 'sins of commission'—the use of patronage politics to co-opt opponents. The author finds that while patronage and corruption generally increase conflict risk, they can actually enhance regime resilience in oil-rich states by bribing potential rebels. Additionally, the research highlights that single-party authoritarian regimes are more resilient to armed conflict than military or multi-party autocracies. In Nigeria, the study finds that non-state conflict is driven by political and economic competition for state patronage rather than ethnic or religious animosity.

The study finds that regions in Sub-Saharan Africa with high levels of both vertical and horizontal socioeconomic inequality are significantly more prone to violent communal conflicts. Specifically, the marginalization of the largest ethnic group in a region is a key driver of violence. The authors argue that the exclusionary nature of the African state and elite incentives to mobilize communal identities transform economic grievances into violent clashes over resources and political power.