What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures?

The document analyzes the drivers of protests against pandemic restrictions across Europe, Germany, and the US. It finds that protest intensity is influenced by the perceived asynchronicity between mortality rates and policy stringency, levels of trust in government, and political polarization. In Europe, higher trust and lower civil liberties correlate with fewer protests. In Germany, districts with lower support for mainstream parties saw more protests, particularly in the East. In the US, protest intensity was higher in Democratic-governed states, driven both by stricter measures and political polarization.

• In European countries, the frequency of protests against pandemic policies is negatively correlated with trust in government and public administration, and positively correlated with the level of protection for civil liberties.
• Protests are more likely to occur when there is a perceived mismatch, or asynchronicity, between the severity of the pandemic (mortality rates) and the stringency of the containment measures.
• In Germany, protest intensity was higher in districts with lower support for mainstream parties, though this effect was not observed in Eastern German districts where support for mainstream parties is consistently low.
• Eastern German districts exhibited a disproportionately high level of protest activity relative to their population size, accounting for 34.6 percent of all German protests despite representing only 19.3 percent of the population.
• In the United States, protest intensity was higher in states governed by the Democratic Party compared to those governed by the Republican Party, a result attributed to both the implementation of stricter measures and political polarization.
• Economic inequality is identified as a factor that increases protest intensity within the polarized political environment of the United States.

APA

Neumayer, E., Pfaff, K., & Plümper, T. (2021). What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb283695-b5fd-42fc-8019-c467fc4c04e1/Pfaff Neumayer and Plumper - What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures - Conflict Trends 5-2021.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Neumayer, Eric, Katharina Pfaff, and Thomas Plümper. What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2021. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb283695-b5fd-42fc-8019-c467fc4c04e1/Pfaff Neumayer and Plumper - What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures - Conflict Trends 5-2021.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Neumayer |first1=Eric |last2=Pfaff |first2=Katharina |last3=Plümper |first3=Thomas |title=What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=May 2021 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb283695-b5fd-42fc-8019-c467fc4c04e1/Pfaff Neumayer and Plumper - What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures - Conflict Trends 5-2021.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{neumayer2021what, author = {Neumayer, Eric and Pfaff, Katharina and Plümper, Thomas}, title = {{What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb283695-b5fd-42fc-8019-c467fc4c04e1/Pfaff Neumayer and Plumper - What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures - Conflict Trends 5-2021.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }