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The report analyzes inequalities in access to Pronaf credit among Brazilian family farmers, identifying technical assistance (ATER) and cooperatives as key drivers of access. It highlights a stark regional divide, with the South region having significantly higher access than the North and Northeast. The study argues that credit alone is insufficient for climate adaptation and calls for increased investment in ATER, which has seen a downward trend in federal spending, to ensure a just and sustainable agricultural transition.

The report analyzes 215 incidents of generative AI use across 50 countries that held competitive national elections in 2024. It finds that GenAI was present in 80% of these countries, primarily used for creating synthetic content such as deepfake audio and video. A significant majority (69%) of these incidents were categorized as harmful to the electoral process, with 20% attributed to foreign actors, all of whom demonstrated harmful intent. The document emphasizes the challenge of anonymity, as 46% of incidents had unidentifiable authors, and recommends mandatory disclosure norms and improved detection methods to protect democratic integrity.

The report finds that 80% of countries with competitive national elections in 2024 experienced GenAI-related incidents, with 69% of these being harmful. Most incidents involved content creation, such as deepfakes, and nearly half had unknown sources. While some candidates used GenAI for positive voter outreach, the majority of use—especially by foreign actors—was deceptive or malicious.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) identified 23 methane 'super-emitter' events linked to eight coal mines across Australia, Colombia, Mexico, and China between January 1, 2023, and April 1, 2024. Using NASA EMIT sensor data and the Global Coal Mine Tracker, GEM connected these plumes to specific operators, highlighting a lack of global incentives for mine operators to mitigate methane emissions, particularly from ventilation shafts.

The report finds that REDD+ projects under Verra's methodologies systematically over-credit their climate benefits due to inflated baselines, underestimated leakage, and exaggerated forest carbon stocks. It further argues that social safeguards are often treated as a 'check-box activity,' failing to protect vulnerable forest communities from displacement and rights violations. The authors conclude that REDD+ is ill-suited for generating carbon offsets and recommend a shift toward a contributions-based approach and rights-based safeguards.

The research examines the relationship between international public climate finance and the mitigation ambitions of developing countries using data from 2015-2020. The study finds a positive but statistically insignificant effect of finance on ambition, noting that this effect is more pronounced for least developed countries than for small island developing states.

The authors examine how legitimacy is used as a tool for political contestation in the governance of transboundary climate risks (TCRs). By analyzing 41 interviews within the Brazilian-German coffee supply-chain, the paper identifies five distinct governance pathways, each based on a different operationalization of legitimacy. The authors argue that legitimacy is not a static quality but an object of contestation that actors use to promote their preferred governance approaches and delegitimize others, a dynamic they suggest is applicable to broader challenges in global environmental governance.

The report analyzes the 2022 reporting practices of 100 large EU companies, finding that while adoption is high, significant issues exist regarding the precision of legislation, the complexity of reporting forms, and the relevance of defined activities for many sectors. It highlights a discrepancy between the eligibility reported by financial and non-financial companies and recommends simplifying reporting requirements and clarifying key legal terms.

The paper examines the role of aid projects as 'system builders' that use demonstration projects and barrier removal to foster the adoption of climate technologies in developing countries. It defines 'familiarization' as the non-prioritization of a technology in a country's Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) document. The analysis finds that while higher project costs increase the likelihood of a technology being included in a TNA, longer project durations actually decrease that likelihood. The author concludes that sustaining the scale-up of these technologies requires donors to commit aid over multiyear periods to support long-term capacity building.

The document challenges the common assumption that unemployment, particularly among youth, increases the likelihood of political violence and protests. By reviewing global research and analyzing survey data from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the author finds that unemployed individuals are not more likely to support political violence or participate in demonstrations than those who are employed. Instead, the brief identifies other work-related factors—such as ambiguous employment status, part-time work, and job dissatisfaction—as stronger predictors of political activity. The author suggests that the unemployed may be less active due to a lack of resources, social stigmatization, or low interest in politics.

The report finds that the introduction of a mandatory environmental conciliation stage has paralyzed 98% of deforestation-related infringement notices issued between October 2019 and May 2021, exacerbating impunity. This occurs against a broader trend of weakening environmental control since 2015, with deforestation rates returning to 2006 levels by 2021. The analysis also highlights severe transparency gaps in Ibama's open data, including the loss of geographic area data for sanctions after August 2019 and restricted public access to procedural documents.

The report analyzes the spatial and temporal links between forest degradation and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2017 to 2020. Using INPE's DETER and PRODES systems, it finds that while direct local conversion of degraded areas into deforested land is low (10%), a significant portion of deforestation (30%) occurs within 1 km of previously degraded areas. The study highlights that degradation is more prevalent in medium and large private properties than deforestation is, suggesting that degradation can serve as a regional risk indicator for future deforestation and that policy efforts should be targeted based on land tenure categories.

The document argues that standard tax treaty models (OECD and UN) may lead to significant revenue losses for resource-rich developing countries if not adapted for the mining sector. It identifies three primary risks: the inability to tax offshore indirect transfers of mining assets, subcontractors avoiding a taxable presence (permanent establishment), and the loss of withholding tax on technical and management services. To mitigate these, the guide recommends adopting comprehensive domestic definitions of immovable property, implementing 'Extractives PE' or standalone extractive industry articles in treaties, and utilizing standalone 'fees for technical services' articles. It also warns against the 'locking in' of unsustainable tax benefits through fiscal stabilization clauses in Mining Concession Agreements (MCAs).

The document analyzes the drivers of protests against pandemic restrictions across Europe, Germany, and the US. It finds that protest intensity is influenced by the perceived asynchronicity between mortality rates and policy stringency, levels of trust in government, and political polarization. In Europe, higher trust and lower civil liberties correlate with fewer protests. In Germany, districts with lower support for mainstream parties saw more protests, particularly in the East. In the US, protest intensity was higher in Democratic-governed states, driven both by stricter measures and political polarization.

The Clean Air Task Force asserts that draft rules from the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) contain exemptions that would allow a large portion of oil and gas sites to avoid emissions reduction requirements. By analyzing NMED's own helicopter flyover surveys from 2019 and 2020, the authors found that at least 57% of sites with large, visible emissions would be exempt under the draft rules, specifically those with calculated potential volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions of less than 15 tons per year.

The briefing analyzes forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2007 to 2016, defining it as the partial loss of forest biomass. It finds that degradation is more widespread than clear-cut deforestation, averaging 11,000 km2 per year, and is concentrated in the 'Arco do Desmatamento', specifically in Mato Grosso and Pará. The study highlights that the relationship between degradation and subsequent deforestation varies by land tenure category: while conversion is low in protected territories, it is higher in small private properties and rural settlements, where degradation may serve as a low-cost precursor to total forest removal. The authors argue that degradation should be used as an indicator of imminent environmental damage to better allocate scarce public resources.

The report defines forest degradation as the partial loss of forest biomass and argues that it is an increasingly relevant threat to the Brazilian Amazon, often acting as a precursor to deforestation. Analyzing data from 2007 to 2016, the study finds that degradation affects a larger area than clear-cut deforestation, averaging 11,000 km² annually. The relationship between degradation and subsequent deforestation varies by land tenure: it is lowest in protected territories and highest in small private properties and rural settlements. The authors suggest that degradation can serve as a leading indicator for imminent environmental damage, necessitating tailored public policies based on governance structures.

The study examines the link between green bonds and climate targets for the twenty largest European green bond issuers in 2018. It finds a disconnect between these issuers' climate targets and their green bond frameworks, alongside deficiencies in post-issuance reporting. The author concludes that there is minimal pressure for issuers to align bond proceeds with ambitious science-based targets, suggesting a need for policy intervention to prevent greenwashing and align the market with planetary boundaries.

The report analyzes Brazil's rural credit system, highlighting its complexity and fragmentation. It provides empirical evidence that rural credit, particularly when directed at small farmers, increases land and labor productivity and reduces deforestation by promoting the conversion of degraded pastures into cropland. The document argues for simplifying the credit system, increasing private sector participation, and strengthening the link between credit access and compliance with the Forest Code to ensure sustainable agricultural growth.

The report analyzes the Brazilian National Rural Credit System, highlighting its complexity and fragmentation. It provides empirical evidence that rural credit, particularly when directed to small farmers, increases land and labor productivity and reduces deforestation pressures by promoting the conversion of pasture to cropland. The document advocates for the integration of the Forest Code and the ABC Program into credit eligibility to foster sustainable agriculture and suggests reducing political interference and increasing private sector participation in rural finance.