Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest?

The document challenges the common assumption that unemployment, particularly among youth, increases the likelihood of political violence and protests. By reviewing global research and analyzing survey data from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the author finds that unemployed individuals are not more likely to support political violence or participate in demonstrations than those who are employed. Instead, the brief identifies other work-related factors—such as ambiguous employment status, part-time work, and job dissatisfaction—as stronger predictors of political activity. The author suggests that the unemployed may be less active due to a lack of resources, social stigmatization, or low interest in politics.

• Existing global research on the link between unemployment and political violence is inconsistent and lacks strong empirical support, with some studies suggesting unemployment does not act as a mechanistic causal factor in violent conflicts in developing countries.
• Analysis of Afrobarometer survey data from five North African countries indicates that unemployed individuals are actually less supportive of political violence than those who are employed.
• Data from the Sahwa youth survey in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Lebanon shows that unemployed youth are not more likely to participate in demonstrations compared to employed youth.
• Young people with 'ambiguous employment status'—those who report being unemployed or students but later disclose performing some work, often in the informal sector—are significantly more active protesters than those clearly employed or unemployed.
• Specific employment characteristics are stronger drivers of protest than general unemployment; those working part-time (less than 30 hours a week) and those dissatisfied with their work demonstrate more frequently.
• The document proposes several reasons why the unemployed may not protest, including a lack of necessary resources (money, social connections, or political skills), social stigmatization leading to passivity, and a low interest in politics.

APA

Paasonen, K. (2022). Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fa4a62d0-d389-410c-b82c-e3a416b335dc/Paasonen - Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest Focusing on the case of Middle Eastern and North African youth - Conflict Trends 1-2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Paasonen, Kari. Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fa4a62d0-d389-410c-b82c-e3a416b335dc/Paasonen - Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest Focusing on the case of Middle Eastern and North African youth - Conflict Trends 1-2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Paasonen |first1=Kari |title=Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fa4a62d0-d389-410c-b82c-e3a416b335dc/Paasonen - Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest Focusing on the case of Middle Eastern and North African youth - Conflict Trends 1-2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{paasonen2022does, author = {Paasonen, Kari}, title = {{Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fa4a62d0-d389-410c-b82c-e3a416b335dc/Paasonen - Does Unemployment Drive Political Violence and Protest Focusing on the case of Middle Eastern and North African youth - Conflict Trends 1-2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }