Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008

The study finds that regions in Sub-Saharan Africa with high levels of both vertical and horizontal socioeconomic inequality are significantly more prone to violent communal conflicts. Specifically, the marginalization of the largest ethnic group in a region is a key driver of violence. The authors argue that the exclusionary nature of the African state and elite incentives to mobilize communal identities transform economic grievances into violent clashes over resources and political power.

• Regions characterized by strong socioeconomic inequalities, including both vertical inequality (between individuals) and horizontal inequality (between ethnic groups), face a significantly higher risk of violent communal conflicts.
• The risk of communal conflict is particularly high in regions where the largest ethnic group is economically disadvantaged compared to other groups.
• Vertical inequality in household assets and educational attainment both positively correlate with the risk of communal conflict; for assets, a move from the 10th to 90th percentile of inequality increases the predicted annual risk of violence from 0.6% to 2%.
• Horizontal inequality specifically increases conflict risk when the largest group is marginalized, whereas the relative privilege of the largest group does not significantly increase the risk of communal conflict.
• The authors argue that the 'exclusionary political legitimacy' of the state in Sub-Saharan Africa leads to a zero-sum competition for resources, where political elites are incentivized to exploit communal divisions to maintain power.
• Other significant predictors of communal violence include the presence of politically excluded groups, higher population density, and greater distance from the national capital, which the authors proxy as weaker institutional presence.

APA

Fjelde, H., & Østby, G. (n.d.). Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/71e91de2-66a9-4276-b3b8-b143b2abe9a6/Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa 1990-2008.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Fjelde, Hanne, and Gudrun Østby. Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/71e91de2-66a9-4276-b3b8-b143b2abe9a6/Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa 1990-2008.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fjelde |first1=Hanne |last2=Østby |first2=Gudrun |title=Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/71e91de2-66a9-4276-b3b8-b143b2abe9a6/Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa 1990-2008.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fjeldendsocioeconomic, author = {Fjelde, Hanne and Østby, Gudrun}, title = {{Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/71e91de2-66a9-4276-b3b8-b143b2abe9a6/Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa 1990-2008.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }