Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021

The report analyzes global conflict dynamics, noting that state-based conflicts reached historic highs in 2019 and 2020. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving conflict numbers and the rise of non-state conflicts, particularly in the Americas and Africa. The document also tracks the declining success rates of non-violent resistance campaigns and the prevalence of conflict-related sexual violence, which is most frequently recorded in Africa.

• State-based conflicts reached record highs in 2019 and 2020, with 56 conflicts recorded in each year. In 2021, 54 state-based conflicts were recorded across 35 countries, resulting in nearly 85,000 battle-related deaths.
• The conflict in Yemen saw a massive escalation in fatalities, with battle-related deaths increasing from 2,300 in 2020 to more than 23,000 in 2021.
• The expansion of the Islamic State (IS) has been a primary driver of the increase in state-based conflicts. In 2021, there were 15 conflicts involving IS, and between 2015 and 2021, IS-related conflicts represented 26% to 33% of all conflicts.
• Non-state conflicts have stabilized at higher levels than before 2012. In 2021, 76 non-state conflicts were recorded, resulting in 25,247 battle-related deaths, an increase of over 2,000 from the previous year.
• Non-state conflict in the Americas is primarily characterized by fighting between highly organized actors, specifically drug cartel violence in Mexico, whereas non-state conflict in Africa features a higher number of communal conflicts.
• One-sided violence fatalities increased from 8,596 in 2020 to 10,003 in 2021. While non-state actors commit the largest share of this violence, there has been an increase in government-perpetrated one-sided violence since 2014.
• Non-violent resistance campaigns were more prevalent than violent ones between 1989 and 2019, but their success rate has declined since 2010. In the last decade, six of ten years saw failure rates of 60% or higher.
• Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) is most frequently recorded in Africa, where 18% of all active conflict-actor-years between 1989 and 2019 experienced it. State actors are the most frequent perpetrators, responsible for more than half of all reported 'massive' levels of sexual violence.

APA

Palik, J., Obermeier, A. M., & Rustad, S. A. (2022). Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/988284ec-ec0d-4d9b-ba30-006b223ce98e/Palik et al - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2021 PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Palik, Júlia, Anna Marie Obermeier, and Siri Aas Rustad. Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/988284ec-ec0d-4d9b-ba30-006b223ce98e/Palik et al - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2021 PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Palik |first1=Júlia |last2=Obermeier |first2=Anna Marie |last3=Rustad |first3=Siri Aas |title=Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/988284ec-ec0d-4d9b-ba30-006b223ce98e/Palik et al - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2021 PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{palik2022conflict, author = {Palik, Júlia and Obermeier, Anna Marie and Rustad, Siri Aas}, title = {{Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/988284ec-ec0d-4d9b-ba30-006b223ce98e/Palik et al - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2021 PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }