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The document introduces a collective volume analyzing the shifting security and geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean. It identifies four primary drivers of change: hydrocarbon discoveries, geopolitical antagonisms (particularly involving Turkey), new human security imperatives resulting from Middle Eastern instability, and increased interest from external powers like the US, Russia, and China. The text focuses on the formation of trilateral partnerships (Cyprus-Greece-Israel and Cyprus-Egypt-Greece) as a balancing act against Turkey's regional power projection and explores how these alliances intersect with energy security and the broader refugee crisis affecting Southern Europe.

The document examines the discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and the subsequent formation of political alliances between Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt. It evaluates three primary monetisation strategies: the East Med pipeline to Europe, a pipeline to Turkey, and a triangular strategy using Egypt as a gas hub. The author argues that while these projects are politically desirable for regional security and EU diversification, they face severe technical, financial, and geopolitical obstacles—including high construction costs, seismic risks, and volatile global gas prices—that may render them commercially unviable.

The paper analyzes the dual perception of the Mediterranean as both a 'threatening' and 'bridging' sea. It details the transition of Turkey from the Ottoman Empire to a secular republic based on a constructed Hittite identity, and compares this to Israel's own nation-building. The author argues that Israel, Greece, and Cyprus share common interests as small non-Muslim states facing external coercion and the decline of Middle Eastern Christianity, leading to increased military and intelligence cooperation.

The document argues that a combination of systemic shifts—including a regional power vacuum, the discovery of hydrocarbons, and a more hostile Turkish foreign policy—and the pro-Western orientation of the Nikos Anastasiades government enabled Cyprus to move from a reactive to a proactive foreign policy. This shift is manifested in 'trilateral partnerships' with Greece, Israel, and Egypt, which serve as a balancing strategy against Turkey. While these efforts have enhanced Cyprus's regional role and security, the author suggests they may have led the government to overlook the domestic and intercommunal complexities of the Cyprus Problem.

The report examines the shift in Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics driven by hydrocarbon discoveries and the formation of trilateral partnerships (Greece-Cyprus-Israel and Greece-Cyprus-Egypt). It analyzes these alliances as a balancing act against Turkey's regional power projection and assertive foreign policy. While energy is a primary driver, the report notes that technical, economic, and political obstacles—such as the viability of the EastMed pipeline and maritime boundary disputes—hinder full monetization of gas reserves. The text also explores the domestic drivers of foreign policy in Cyprus and Greece, the historical perceptions of the region from an Israeli perspective, and Turkey's strategic ambition to become a regional energy hub.

The document argues that energy transitions are fundamentally about people and that early action is necessary to minimize negative impacts and maximize opportunities. It emphasizes that a just transition is a negotiated process involving workers, industry, and governments, rather than a fixed set of rules, and warns that protecting the status quo of carbon-intensive industries can lead to higher costs and missed economic diversification.

The report argues that early action on just energy transitions can minimize negative impacts on workers and communities while maximizing opportunities in low-carbon sectors. It outlines a 'How-To' framework consisting of four key stages: understanding the political economy context, identifying champions, making the case through inclusive communication, and implementing complementary policies such as retraining and economic diversification. The document emphasizes that a just transition is not a fixed set of rules but a negotiated process based on social dialogue and tripartism. Through case studies, it demonstrates various approaches: Canada's use of a high-level Task Force, Egypt and Indonesia's reallocation of fossil fuel subsidies into social and infrastructure programs, and Poland's use of 'golden handshakes' and regional support for mining communes. It concludes that overcoming 'carbon lock-in' requires transparent communication, tangible short-term benefits, and the mobilization of dedicated funding from sources like energy taxes or subsidy reforms.

The report highlights that while Africa has contributed minimally to global warming, it is disproportionately vulnerable due to high levels of extreme poverty and low state capacity. It projects that without significant intervention, the number of people in extreme poverty will rise until 2040, peaking at 590 million. The document argues that prioritizing human development—specifically education, healthcare, and water infrastructure—is essential to increasing adaptive capacity. It contrasts the 'Current Path' with a 'Green Road' scenario where inclusive, sustainable growth effectively eliminates extreme poverty by mid-century and significantly reduces the population lacking access to improved water.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

The document analyzes the resurgence of debt in Africa, noting that 19 countries have exceeded the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold. It identifies key drivers such as commodity price shocks, exchange rate volatility, and a shift from concessional to market-based loans. Through case studies of Nigeria and Morocco, it examines debt management strategies, including the use of Eurobonds and the importance of autonomous debt management offices, while recommending economic diversification and improved domestic resource mobilization to ensure long-term sustainability.

At its 21st meeting in October 2018, the GCF Board approved 19 new projects and programmes totaling USD 1.04 billion in GCF investment to support over USD 4 billion in climate action across more than 50 countries. The Board also accredited 16 new entities, appointed the World Bank as the Fund's Trustee, and launched the process for the GCF's first formal replenishment to be concluded by October 2019. Governance updates included the establishment of a Performance Oversight Committee and the appointment of Javier Manzanares as Executive Director ad interim.

The report argues that most low- and lower-middle-income African states are decades away from a demographic dividend due to high youth dependency ratios and slow demographic transitions. While the global working-age to dependent ratio peaked in 2012, Africa's is forecast to peak shortly after 2070. The author suggests that aggressive roll-out of modern contraception, eliminating gender inequality in education, and improving basic infrastructure could advance this dividend. A modelled 'Demographic Dividend' scenario suggests that by 2063, Africa could have 418 million fewer people but a GDP in purchasing power terms US$1.7 trillion larger than under the current trajectory, significantly reducing extreme poverty and narrowing the income gap with the rest of the world.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The document details the growth of sovereign green bonds, the introduction of national guidelines in Latin America, and the implementation of targeted incentives in Hong Kong. It also covers the European Commission's progress on a sustainable finance taxonomy, Luxembourg's pioneering law for renewable energy covered bonds, and the increasing role of central banks, such as the People's Bank of China, in integrating green assets into financial stability frameworks.

The report concludes that RCEP negotiations have failed transparency and public participation tests, operating largely in secret while granting privileged access to business lobby groups. It examines the specific failures of participating nations—including Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, China, Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia—highlighting the exclusion of parliaments and civil society. The document warns that this secrecy facilitates corporate influence over intellectual property, investment rules, and public services, and recommends a shift toward a democratic, participatory policy-making process.

Since 2016, Israel has pursued a vigorous African engagement strategy to secure diplomatic support in international forums and expand markets for its technology and security expertise. While relations are deepening with East African nations like Ethiopia and Kenya due to shared security concerns and commercial opportunities, ties with regional powerhouses Nigeria and South Africa remain complex and often strained by solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Despite high-level diplomatic efforts, including Prime Minister Netanyahu's visits and the proposed Africa-Israel Summit, the document finds that trade between Israel and Africa remains minimal and that winning consistent loyalty in the UN General Assembly remains elusive.

The document analyzes Zimbabwe's transition following the ousting of Robert Mugabe, focusing on the 2018 general elections. It argues that while Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF are likely to win, the legitimacy of the process is crucial for unlocking foreign investment and implementing economic reforms. The author suggests a 'pragmatic' economic approach, citing Cote d'Ivoire as a positive model for recovery through IMF engagement and market-friendly policies, while warning against the political instability seen in Egypt. Key priorities identified include addressing the $9 billion debt, stabilizing the currency, and re-engaging with Western partners and the IMF.

This briefing, prepared by the United States for the twenty-sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), recommends that Future Earth be invited to become an Associate of the Institute under Article XI of the Agreement Establishing the IAI.

The United States of America recommends that the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) invite the international NGO Future Earth to become an Associate under Article XI of its Agreement. The briefing highlights Future Earth's global research network, its existing Memorandum of Understanding with the IAI signed in 2017, and their joint work through the Belmont Forum and various policy processes to advance sustainability and transdisciplinary research in the Americas.