Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend

The report argues that most low- and lower-middle-income African states are decades away from a demographic dividend due to high youth dependency ratios and slow demographic transitions. While the global working-age to dependent ratio peaked in 2012, Africa's is forecast to peak shortly after 2070. The author suggests that aggressive roll-out of modern contraception, eliminating gender inequality in education, and improving basic infrastructure could advance this dividend. A modelled 'Demographic Dividend' scenario suggests that by 2063, Africa could have 418 million fewer people but a GDP in purchasing power terms US$1.7 trillion larger than under the current trajectory, significantly reducing extreme poverty and narrowing the income gap with the rest of the world.

• Low- and lower-middle-income African states are currently several decades away from achieving a demographic dividend because their demographic transition from high to low birth and death rates is significantly slower than in other global regions.
• While the global ratio of the working-age population to dependents peaked in 2012 and is now declining, Africa's ratio is still growing and is projected to peak shortly after 2070.
• Africa's peak worker-to-dependent ratio is expected to be relatively low (approximately 2.0), which means the continent will experience more modest economic growth rates at its peak compared to the 'Asian Tigers', Japan, or China.
• High youth dependency ratios in sub-Saharan Africa structurally hinder the ability of states to raise incomes quickly enough to reduce poverty, although governance quality, corruption, and a failure to industrialise also contribute.
• Current economic growth in Africa is insufficient to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030; to meet this SDG goal at current inequality levels, annual average GDP growth would need to reach 20% by 2023.
• Female educational attainment is identified as the primary driver for reducing fertility rates, as educated women typically have more employment opportunities and desire fewer children.
• There is significant unmet demand for modern contraceptives in Africa, with estimates for 2018 placing unmet need at 28% in low-income African countries and 25% in lower-middle-income countries.
• A modelled 'Demographic Dividend' scenario—combining aggressive contraceptive roll-out, improved education, and better infrastructure—would result in 418 million fewer people by 2063 and a GDP (PPP) US$1.7 trillion larger than the current path.
• Under the 'Demographic Dividend' scenario, the global population peak would occur around 2075 at 9.7 billion people, rather than around 2090 at 10.4 billion.
• The 'Demographic Dividend' scenario would significantly reduce extreme poverty, with 112 million fewer people living in extreme poverty by 2050 compared to the current path.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2018). Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2018getting, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }