Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend

This report analyzes the conditions necessary for African states to achieve a demographic dividend, noting that most are currently several decades away due to high youth dependency and slow fertility declines. It argues that while global growth is slowing due to aging populations, Africa's expanding working-age population offers a comparative advantage if coupled with investments in contraception, female education, and basic infrastructure. The report warns that without these interventions and significant job creation, Africa will continue to diverge from global averages in income and health.

• Low- and lower-middle-income African states are currently several decades away from achieving a demographic dividend. The continent's transition from high to low birth and death rates is significantly slower than in other global regions, with most states expected to benefit from a dividend only by mid-century or later.
• Africa's current economic growth is insufficient to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. To meet the SDG goal of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030, Africa would need an annual average GDP growth rate of 20% by 2023 (at current inequality levels) or 12% if inequality were significantly reduced.
• While the global ratio of working-age population to dependents peaked in 2012 and is declining, Africa's ratio is still growing and is forecast to peak shortly after 2070. This gives Africa a comparative advantage as the only region where the working-age population relative to dependents will expand beyond 2030.
• High youth dependency ratios in sub-Saharan Africa structurally limit the ability of states to raise incomes rapidly enough to reduce poverty. This is compounded by factors such as the inability to industrialise, corruption, and governance quality.
• A demographic window of opportunity typically requires a fertility rate of 2.8 children per woman or lower. Sub-Saharan Africa's current fertility rate is estimated at 4.8 children per woman and is likely to reach the 2.8 threshold only around 2050.
• The report models a scenario to advance Africa's demographic dividend which suggests that by 2063, the continent would have 418 million fewer people and a GDP (in purchasing power terms) that is US$1.7 trillion larger than the current trajectory.
• To accelerate the demographic transition, the report recommends three primary interventions: the accelerated roll-out of modern contraception, eliminating gender inequality in education (specifically boosting female enrolment and graduation rates), and investing in basic infrastructure like clean water and improved sanitation to reduce infant and female mortality.
• Labour productivity in Africa is currently lower than global counterparts due to low education levels and a high disease burden. However, the report suggests that the fourth industrial revolution and digital opportunities could potentially reverse this gap.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2018). Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2018getting, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar13-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }